Research Briefing | Jan 20, 2022

Ukraine’s sovereign Eurobonds are a bargain despite risks

Ipad Frame - Ukraine-Sovereign-Eurobonds-are-a-bargain-despite-risks

Ukraine’s sovereign Eurobond yields soared since mid-November when US sources first reported a build-up of Russian troops along its eastern border. We retain an overweight on Ukraine’s Eurobonds. We think markets are pricing in too high a risk of invasion and default.

What you will learn:

  • We calculate that Ukraine’s benchmark bonds price in a 20% probability of default, but better outcomes for Ukraine are still on the table.
  • We believe that Russia aims to capitalise on the inconsistencies in the current US and NATO position on Ukraine’s NATO membership.
  •  If a military operation takes place, it is more likely to be in a form of precision strikes on key Ukrainian military infrastructure.
Back to Resource Hub

Related Resources

China The overcapacity 'problem' in five charts

Post

China’s overcapacity ‘problem’ in five charts

We find emerging, but not overwhelming, macro proof to support the recent geopolitical narrative of excess Chinese goods production that unfairly undercuts global manufacturing competitors on price. Without compelling evidence in the data, there is likely no impetus for authorities to adopt meaningful course-corrective measures to rein in any perceived excess capacity problems zeroed in by Western trading partners anytime soon.

Find Out More

Post

South Africa: Elections 2024 | ‘ANC & DA’ election scenario

This Research Briefing details the third of our four scenarios for South Africa's general election on May 29. In this scenario, the African National Congress (ANC), having won only 40% of the vote, decides to make a deal with the party that has been the official opposition for 25 years: the liberal Democratic Alliance (DA).

Find Out More