Research Briefing | Jan 18, 2022

Sweden 2022 GDP growth forecast remains as expected despite Omicron

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We have kept our growth forecast for this year unchanged at 3.2%, as we expect the impact of the Omicron wave to be mild. The latest data on production and consumption confirm this. Although recently tightened, we expect Sweden to maintain minimal formal restrictions.

What you will learn:

  • Consumers are likely to voluntarily change their behaviour during the winter months, which will adversely impact close-contact services, but we expect a rebound from Q2.
  • Monthly GDP data up to November point to growth of around 1% q/q in Q4, slightly higher than our forecast, although December was likely a drag.
  • The job recovery continues at a steady pace. According to the Public Employment Service, the unemployment rate stayed at 7.2% in December, in line with the average just before the pandemic.

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