Research Briefing | Jan 14, 2022

Geneva stalemate isn’t an endgame

Ipad Frame - Russia-Geneva-stalemate-isnt-an-endgame

This week’s talks between Russia, on one side, and on the other the US, NATO and the Organisation of Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), have not resulted in an agreement. Russia and Ukraine’s markets reacted nervously: RUB depreciated to 77 vs USD in yesterday’s trading and the Ukrainian hryvnia fell to nearly 28 vs USD from 27.5 early this week.What you will learn:

  • Markets have probably overreacted to the apparent failure of the talks, although geopolitical risks in the region remain elevated.
  • We see the diplomatic discussions continuing in the coming weeks. The big come-back of investors into Russian markets is probably a way off.
  • But in the absence of further escalation, the rouble should return on a firming trend later in Q1 as it remains substantially undervalued.
Back to Resource Hub

Related research

Seoul, South Korea

Post

BoK’s monetary policy to tighten even as hiking cycle ends

Even without rate hikes, central banks' monetary policies can effectively tighten if the nominal neutral rate falls below the policy rate. We expect this will be the case for the Bank of Korea this year, as the gap between the policy rate and the nominal neutral rate widens.

Find Out More

Post

China: Emerging green shoots in Spring, but not out of the woods

We now incorporate a faster recovery from the post-Covid exit wave and raise our 2023 full-year GDP growth forecast to 4.5% (from 4.2% previously).

Find Out More