Geneva stalemate isn’t an endgame
This week’s talks between Russia, on one side, and on the other the US, NATO and the Organisation of Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), have not resulted in an agreement. Russia and Ukraine’s markets reacted nervously: RUB depreciated to 77 vs USD in yesterday’s trading and the Ukrainian hryvnia fell to nearly 28 vs USD from 27.5 early this week.What you will learn:
- Markets have probably overreacted to the apparent failure of the talks, although geopolitical risks in the region remain elevated.
- We see the diplomatic discussions continuing in the coming weeks. The big come-back of investors into Russian markets is probably a way off.
- But in the absence of further escalation, the rouble should return on a firming trend later in Q1 as it remains substantially undervalued.
Tags:
Related research
Post
China up the value chain and deeper into export markets
China’s rapid rise across both high-tech and labour-intensive exports is reshaping global trade and squeezing competitors — but which countries and industries are most at risk?
Find Out More
Post
US chip exports unlikely to derail China’s local production push
The US is loosening restrictions on advanced chip exports to China, hoping to slow its manufacturing progress, but China’s drive for self-sufficiency is accelerating — will this policy shift actually work?
Find Out More
