Research Briefing | Jan 17, 2022

Global logistics challenges more than just port bottlenecks

Ipad Frame - Global logistics challenges more than just port bottlenecks

The pandemic has tested the adaptability and resilience of transport and logistics companies. With consumers focusing their spending on goods rather than on services during lockdowns, global container throughput regained its pre-pandemic level of activity relatively quickly. However, shortages across numerous dimensions—namely in labour, warehouse space, and truck trailers—have meant supply has struggled to keep pace with firm consumer demand.

We expect transportation bottlenecks to persist well into 2022 with problems existing throughout the supply chain—spanning from port and ship capacity to the ability of logistics networks to deliver goods to their final destination.

Container shipping rates are currently around nine times their level relative to June 2020, the lowest value since the start of the pandemic, highlighting coordination problems. Even as ports increase operating hours to ease congestion, absenteeism related to renewed increases in Covid-19 infections may scupper hopes of these pressures abating in the near term.

Truck drivers are also in short supply across many countries, so increasing throughput at ports simply overwhelms transport networks further inland. Key to addressing this problem is increasing wages and improving working conditions to attract more job applicants.

Warehouses are bursting at the seams across many countries in the wake of the sudden shift to online purchases, but new construction is robust. Demand-side pressures for warehousing facilities are likely to persist in the near term, but as consumer spending continues to rotate away from goods to services, these pressures will ease. However, the Omicron Covid-19 variant risks pushing this spending rotation further into the future.

 

What you will learn:

  • What’s happening at key ports and the impact on container shipping costs
  • The impact of shortages in the trucking industry and insufficient shortage space is having on the ability to get goods to customers
  • When and how the bottlenecks will be unravelled
Back to Resource Hub

Related Services

Post

Emerging Markets forecast issues – Policy easing faces stronger headwinds

In our latest monthly forecast, we raised our aggregate 2023 GDP growth forecast for emerging markets (EMs) by 0.1ppt to 4.1%. We raised our 2023 GDP growth forecast for China by 0.1ppt to 5.2% after a slight outperformance in Q3, consistent with the official growth target of “around 5%". We maintain our 2024 aggregate EM growth forecast at 3.6%.

Find Out More
London's buildings stand in the way of rapid net zero

Post

London’s buildings stand in the way of rapid net zero

Over a third of London’s greenhouse gases arise from heating and lighting the capital’s residential buildings. Removing those emissions by 2050, let alone 2030, looks challenging.

Find Out More