Research Briefing | Jan 17, 2022

US retail real estate pricing rebound looks unlikely

US retail real estate pricing rebound looks unlikely cover

Much has been written about the rebound in US retail fundamentals with some real estate commentators suggesting that the strengthening near-term demand outlook for the sector will result in increased investor interest and a recovery in pricing levels, specifically for the wearied mall segment. We believe this argument is overblown.

What you will learn:

  • Our current retail forecasts call for market returns that are markedly weaker than pre-Covid performance.
  • The flood of capital chasing real estate and driving down yields elsewhere in the property market will likely bypass retail as yields soften over the near term.
  • While fundamentals have improved recently, the temporary cyclical recovery will soon wane and the structural headwinds facing the sector will take centre stage once again.

Back to Resource Hub

Related Services

Post

Nordics: Key themes 2024 – Light at the end of the tunnel

We forecast no rate cuts by the Fed up to and including the July meeting, while the market prices 72bps. We therefore see value in paying July FOMC-dated Fed Funds swaps, currently trading at 4.61%.

Find Out More

Post

Emerging Markets forecast issues – Policy easing faces stronger headwinds

In our latest monthly forecast, we raised our aggregate 2023 GDP growth forecast for emerging markets (EMs) by 0.1ppt to 4.1%. We raised our 2023 GDP growth forecast for China by 0.1ppt to 5.2% after a slight outperformance in Q3, consistent with the official growth target of “around 5%". We maintain our 2024 aggregate EM growth forecast at 3.6%.

Find Out More