Research Briefing | Jan 17, 2022

US retail real estate pricing rebound looks unlikely

US retail real estate pricing rebound looks unlikely cover

Much has been written about the rebound in US retail fundamentals with some real estate commentators suggesting that the strengthening near-term demand outlook for the sector will result in increased investor interest and a recovery in pricing levels, specifically for the wearied mall segment. We believe this argument is overblown.

What you will learn:

  • Our current retail forecasts call for market returns that are markedly weaker than pre-Covid performance.
  • The flood of capital chasing real estate and driving down yields elsewhere in the property market will likely bypass retail as yields soften over the near term.
  • While fundamentals have improved recently, the temporary cyclical recovery will soon wane and the structural headwinds facing the sector will take centre stage once again.

Back to Resource Hub

Related Services

Post

Why the consumer recovery is delayed, not derailed

Latest data point to a delayed start to a consumer revival in the eurozone, but we see relatively low risk of it being derailed. Even with a slow start, it's unlikely to throw the rebound off course – plus there's a chance of make-up growth in H2. We expect private consumption to grow 1.2% in 2024 overall.

Find Out More
Manufacturing

Post

Industrial production bottomed out in major developed economies

Our new proprietary cycle phase analysis suggests that industrial production in many developed economies has bottomed out and is now poised to enter a period of growth.

Find Out More