US retail real estate pricing rebound looks unlikely
Much has been written about the rebound in US retail fundamentals with some real estate commentators suggesting that the strengthening near-term demand outlook for the sector will result in increased investor interest and a recovery in pricing levels, specifically for the wearied mall segment. We believe this argument is overblown.
What you will learn:
- Our current retail forecasts call for market returns that are markedly weaker than pre-Covid performance.
- The flood of capital chasing real estate and driving down yields elsewhere in the property market will likely bypass retail as yields soften over the near term.
- While fundamentals have improved recently, the temporary cyclical recovery will soon wane and the structural headwinds facing the sector will take centre stage once again.
Big shifts are underway in Russia-China trade
Data for Q3 on the volume of China's imports of crude from Russia show a drop against the June level. Rather than an indication that China's demand has peaked, this may be a sign that China is preparing for the Russian oil price cap recently agreed by G7 by shifting some of its purchases to the grey market.Find Out More
Levelling up is unlikely under the Liz Truss government
The government's levelling up ambition has probably been made more, not less, difficult by the new "Plan for Growth". Policies of lower taxes, less regulation, and a smaller state are unlikely to have much beneficial impact on long-term growth at the national level, let alone in those regions with long track records of underperformance.Find Out More