European Industry offering some hope for a better year ahead
Strong industrial production numbers for November offer some hope that the worst is over, supporting our view of a gradual resolution of supply-side issues. Moreover, the strong gains in Spain and Italy could very likely result in some positive surprises for Q4 GDP.
What you will learn:
- But the bigger picture is of a slowing eurozone economy in Q1, with a series of downside risks to our call of pick-up from Q2.
- In particular, a big chunk of our forecast for 2022 continues to rest heavily on the shoulders of consumers and specifically on normalizing saving ratio.
- But the latter could be heavily affected by the evolution of the pandemic and behavioural shifts among consumers.
New Activity Trackers suggest momentum is waning
After a choppy first quarter of GDP data, our novel Activity Trackers (which incorporate proprietary daily sentiment data from Penta) suggest that economic momentum in EM Asia is on a softer trend in Q2 (at least outside of China) supporting our view of easing underlying inflationary pressures and diminishing appetite for further rate hikes.Find Out More
What AI means for economies, businesses, jobs & cities
Artificial Intelligence has the potential to fix the world's productivity problems, just as previous general purpose technologies such as steam power, electricity, and computers have, in our view.Find Out More