Research Briefing | Jan 17, 2022

European Industry offering some hope for a better year ahead

Eurozone | Industry offering some hope for a better year ahead

Strong industrial production numbers for November offer some hope that the worst is over, supporting our view of a gradual resolution of supply-side issues. Moreover, the strong gains in Spain and Italy could very likely result in some positive surprises for Q4 GDP.

What you will learn:

  • But the bigger picture is of a slowing eurozone economy in Q1, with a series of downside risks to our call of pick-up from Q2.
  • In particular, a big chunk of our forecast for 2022 continues to rest heavily on the shoulders of consumers and specifically on normalizing saving ratio.
  • But the latter could be heavily affected by the evolution of the pandemic and behavioural shifts among consumers.
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