Eurozone Recovery Tracker continues its downward trajectory
Our Recovery Tracker continued its downward trajectory in early December as the resurgent pandemic, reimposed restrictions, and voluntary social distancing took their toll on activity in the eurozone. The Tracker fell 3.2pts, to 80.2, in the two weeks ended December 5, the lowest reading since May.
As in the previous weeks, the decline was driven by falls in consumer spending, particularly in contact-intensive settings, and in mobility.
What you will learn:
- Financial conditions saw a sharp decline due to increased volatility in response to the Omicron variant – but, more recently, volatility has since subsided.
- Overall, the Tracker’s readings tally with our baseline of a sharp slowdown in growth during the winter, with restrictions keeping to the on again/off again mode in Q1.
- But there are also positives – the labour market remains resilient, while high-frequency industry data shows sustained signs of improvement.
New Activity Trackers suggest momentum is waning
After a choppy first quarter of GDP data, our novel Activity Trackers (which incorporate proprietary daily sentiment data from Penta) suggest that economic momentum in EM Asia is on a softer trend in Q2 (at least outside of China) supporting our view of easing underlying inflationary pressures and diminishing appetite for further rate hikes.Find Out More
What AI means for economies, businesses, jobs & cities
Artificial Intelligence has the potential to fix the world's productivity problems, just as previous general purpose technologies such as steam power, electricity, and computers have, in our view.Find Out More