Research Briefing | Dec 22, 2021

Eurozone Recovery Tracker continues its downward trajectory

Eurozone | Recovery Tracker continues its downward trajectory

Our Recovery Tracker continued its downward trajectory in early December as the resurgent pandemic, reimposed restrictions, and voluntary social distancing took their toll on activity in the eurozone. The Tracker fell 3.2pts, to 80.2, in the two weeks ended December 5, the lowest reading since May.
As in the previous weeks, the decline was driven by falls in consumer spending, particularly in contact-intensive settings, and in mobility.

What you will learn:

  • Financial conditions saw a sharp decline due to increased volatility in response to the Omicron variant – but, more recently, volatility has since subsided.
  • Overall, the Tracker’s readings tally with our baseline of a sharp slowdown in growth during the winter, with restrictions keeping to the on again/off again mode in Q1.
  • But there are also positives – the labour market remains resilient, while high-frequency industry data shows sustained signs of improvement.
Back to Resource Hub

Related research

Post

Riksbank first does not mean Riksbank alone

We think the Riksbank will cut rates in May, before the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank do so. The Riksbank's monetary policy tightening has had a large impact on the interest rate sensitive Swedish economy, while recent inflation outcomes have undershot Riksbank's forecasts and converged to the target. The effect of an earlier rate cut on the krona is a key risk.

Find Out More
A hat from Trump's US presidential elections campaign

Post

Trumponomics: The economics of a second Trump presidency

We modeled two scenarios in which former President Donald Trump returns to the White House and Republicans gain full control of Congress after the 2024 election.

Find Out More