Research Briefing | Dec 17, 2021

GDP growth forecast for Sweden nudged down to 3.2% due to weaker near-term activity

Ipad Frame - Sweden-GDP-growth-forecast-nudged-down-to-3.2-due-to-weaker-near-term-activity

Growth in Q3 and previous quarters was revised up, pushing up our 2021 forecast to 4.7% from 4.3%. But we have lowered our near-term forecast due to the emergence of the Omicron variant, although this should be compensated for by faster growth later next year to give 2022 growth of 3.2%, slightly lower than projected last month.

What you will learn:

  • We expect Sweden to have minimal formal restrictions, although consumers are likely to voluntarily change their behaviour during the winter months.
  • The job recovery continues at a steady pace. According to the Public Employment Service, the unemployment rate eased to 7.2% in November, in line with the average just before the pandemic.
  • Headline CPI inflation jumped to 3.3% y/y in November from 2.8% in October, in line with our forecast, as electricity prices surged again.

Back to Resource Hub

Related research

Seoul, South Korea

Post

BoK’s monetary policy to tighten even as hiking cycle ends

Even without rate hikes, central banks' monetary policies can effectively tighten if the nominal neutral rate falls below the policy rate. We expect this will be the case for the Bank of Korea this year, as the gap between the policy rate and the nominal neutral rate widens.

Find Out More

Post

China: Emerging green shoots in Spring, but not out of the woods

We now incorporate a faster recovery from the post-Covid exit wave and raise our 2023 full-year GDP growth forecast to 4.5% (from 4.2% previously).

Find Out More