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Research Briefing | Aug 5, 2021

MENA | July PMIs, Oman’s electricity subsidies, Iran inflation

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The PMIs for Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar all remained in expansionary
territory in July at 55.8, 54.0 and 52.2 respectively. Both the UAE and Qatar’s
PMI rose on the back of stronger demand, but Saudi Arabia’s PMI fell for the
first time in four months.

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Research Briefing | Aug 5, 2021

MENA | July PMIs, Oman’s electricity subsidies, Iran inflation

Copy of Copy of Copy of Ipad Frame (59)

The PMIs for Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar all remained in expansionary
territory in July at 55.8, 54.0 and 52.2 respectively. Both the UAE and Qatar’s
PMI rose on the back of stronger demand, but Saudi Arabia’s PMI fell for the
first time in four months.

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Research Briefing | Aug 5, 2021

US | Metro Economic Forecast: Atlanta

Metro Economic Forecast Atlanta June 2021 - iPad

Atlanta has recovered 56% of its lost jobs from the nadir of the pandemic. Its net decline of 4.7% from the previous peak of Q1 2020 ranks 19th best of the top 51 metros and better than the US net decline of 5.6%. Atlanta is expected to see job growth of 3.3% in 2021, 3.6% in 2022, and is expected to recover all of its lost jobs in Q1 2022. From 2023 to 2025, Atlanta is expected to see average annual job growth of 0.7% led by accommodation and food services with 21% of the total growth, followed by health care and social services with 15%, and state and local government—including state government jobs as well as those at Georgia State and Georgia Tech—with 14% of the total growth.

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Research Briefing | Aug 5, 2021

US | Metro Economic Forecast: Atlanta

Metro Economic Forecast Atlanta June 2021 - iPad

Atlanta has recovered 56% of its lost jobs from the nadir of the pandemic. Its net decline of 4.7% from the previous peak of Q1 2020 ranks 19th best of the top 51 metros and better than the US net decline of 5.6%. Atlanta is expected to see job growth of 3.3% in 2021, 3.6% in 2022, and is expected to recover all of its lost jobs in Q1 2022. From 2023 to 2025, Atlanta is expected to see average annual job growth of 0.7% led by accommodation and food services with 21% of the total growth, followed by health care and social services with 15%, and state and local government—including state government jobs as well as those at Georgia State and Georgia Tech—with 14% of the total growth.

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Research Briefing | Aug 5, 2021

Global | Global Risk Survey: Recovery threatened by Delta surge

Global Risk Survey: Recovery threatened by Delta surge

The Delta coronavirus variant poses the greatest risk to the global economy, according to our latest survey of risk perceptions. More respondents cite a new coronavirus wave as the top near-term downside than any risk since our first risk survey five years ago.

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Research Briefing | Aug 5, 2021

Global | Global Risk Survey: Recovery threatened by Delta surge

Global Risk Survey: Recovery threatened by Delta surge

The Delta coronavirus variant poses the greatest risk to the global economy, according to our latest survey of risk perceptions. More respondents cite a new coronavirus wave as the top near-term downside than any risk since our first risk survey five years ago.

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Research Briefing | Aug 4, 2021

UK | A strong recovery across all regions, but worries remain

A strong recovery across all UK regions, but worries remain

The region with the strongest forecast GVA rise in 2021 is the East Midlands, with an 8.2% increase, closely followed by the West Midlands, North East and Northern Ireland. The South East and South West share the bottom spot with 6.9% growth, with London doing little better at 7.1%.

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Research Briefing | Aug 4, 2021

UK | A strong recovery across all regions, but worries remain

A strong recovery across all UK regions, but worries remain

The region with the strongest forecast GVA rise in 2021 is the East Midlands, with an 8.2% increase, closely followed by the West Midlands, North East and Northern Ireland. The South East and South West share the bottom spot with 6.9% growth, with London doing little better at 7.1%.

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Research Briefing | Aug 4, 2021

US | Positioning for rate normalisation

We see the strong pull back in long-term US yields since the peak of the reflation trade this year as an opportunity to enter new positions that capitalise on future macro trends driven by mid-cycle dynamics.

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Research Briefing | Aug 4, 2021

US | Positioning for rate normalisation

We see the strong pull back in long-term US yields since the peak of the reflation trade this year as an opportunity to enter new positions that capitalise on future macro trends driven by mid-cycle dynamics.

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Research Briefing | Aug 2, 2021

Philippines | Pandemic scarring to lower the medium-term policy rate

image of the research briefing

We now expect the long-run nominal neutral policy rate – i.e., the rate at which the economy is in equilibrium and monetary policy fully normalized – to settle at 5%, 50bps below our pre-pandemic projections. The recalibration of our neutral rate forecasts primarily reflects the long-term impact of the pandemic on our forecasts for potential GDP growth.

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Research Briefing | Aug 2, 2021

Philippines | Pandemic scarring to lower the medium-term policy rate

image of the research briefing

We now expect the long-run nominal neutral policy rate – i.e., the rate at which the economy is in equilibrium and monetary policy fully normalized – to settle at 5%, 50bps below our pre-pandemic projections. The recalibration of our neutral rate forecasts primarily reflects the long-term impact of the pandemic on our forecasts for potential GDP growth.

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Research Briefing | Jul 30, 2021

Peru | Castillo risks are more in the optics than the agenda

Castillo risks are more in the optics than the agenda - iPad

President-elect Pedro Castillo will struggle to pass legislation in Peru’s fragmented Congress, meaning the proposals that markets most worry about are unlikely to become reality.

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Research Briefing | Jul 30, 2021

Peru | Castillo risks are more in the optics than the agenda

Castillo risks are more in the optics than the agenda - iPad

President-elect Pedro Castillo will struggle to pass legislation in Peru’s fragmented Congress, meaning the proposals that markets most worry about are unlikely to become reality.

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Research Briefing | Jul 30, 2021

US | Metro Economic Forecast: Columbus

Metro Economic Forecast Columbus June 2021 - iPad

Having suffered less during the pandemic, Columbus has recovered 70% of its lost jobs from the nadir of the pandemic. Its net decline of 3.1% from the previous peak of Q1 2020 ranks 10th of the top 51 metros and better than the US net decline of 5.6%. Columbus is expected to see job growth of 3.3% in 2021, 2.7% in 2022, and is expected to recover all of its lost jobs in Q4 2021. Looking beyond next year, Columbus is expected to see average annual job growth of 0.6% from 2023 to 2025 which ranks 28th of 51 metros and one of the highest in the Midwest. Over 2023-2025, state and local government is expected to contribute the most jobs—including those at the state capital and at Ohio State University—along with warehousing, hospitality and restaurants.

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Research Briefing | Jul 30, 2021

US | Metro Economic Forecast: Columbus

Metro Economic Forecast Columbus June 2021 - iPad

Having suffered less during the pandemic, Columbus has recovered 70% of its lost jobs from the nadir of the pandemic. Its net decline of 3.1% from the previous peak of Q1 2020 ranks 10th of the top 51 metros and better than the US net decline of 5.6%. Columbus is expected to see job growth of 3.3% in 2021, 2.7% in 2022, and is expected to recover all of its lost jobs in Q4 2021. Looking beyond next year, Columbus is expected to see average annual job growth of 0.6% from 2023 to 2025 which ranks 28th of 51 metros and one of the highest in the Midwest. Over 2023-2025, state and local government is expected to contribute the most jobs—including those at the state capital and at Ohio State University—along with warehousing, hospitality and restaurants.

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Research Briefing | Jul 30, 2021

US | Metro Economic Forecast: San Francisco

Metro Economic Forecast San Francisco June 2021 - iPad

Struggling to recover from the reported exodus of residents during the pandemic, San Francisco has recouped only 28% of its lost jobs from the nadir of the outbreak. This corresponds to a net decline of 10% from the previous peak of Q1 2020 which ranks 46th of the largest 51 metros. San Francisco is expected to see job growth of 2.5% in 2021 but then jump 7.5% in 2022. It is expected to recover all of its lost jobs in Q3 2022.

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Research Briefing | Jul 30, 2021

US | Metro Economic Forecast: San Francisco

Metro Economic Forecast San Francisco June 2021 - iPad

Struggling to recover from the reported exodus of residents during the pandemic, San Francisco has recouped only 28% of its lost jobs from the nadir of the outbreak. This corresponds to a net decline of 10% from the previous peak of Q1 2020 which ranks 46th of the largest 51 metros. San Francisco is expected to see job growth of 2.5% in 2021 but then jump 7.5% in 2022. It is expected to recover all of its lost jobs in Q3 2022.

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Research Briefing | Jul 30, 2021

Global | Don’t write off the consumer recovery just yet

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Warnings that the consumer recovery in advanced economies may be faltering look premature. While there are near-term downside risks due to the rise of the Delta variant of the coronavirus, the recovery path was always going to be bumpy and drawn out. We continue to expect two strong years of consumer spending growth in 2021 and 2022.

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Research Briefing | Jul 30, 2021

Global | Don’t write off the consumer recovery just yet

Copy of Copy of Copy of Ipad Frame (57)

Warnings that the consumer recovery in advanced economies may be faltering look premature. While there are near-term downside risks due to the rise of the Delta variant of the coronavirus, the recovery path was always going to be bumpy and drawn out. We continue to expect two strong years of consumer spending growth in 2021 and 2022.

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The latest quarterly travel forecasts for the European region produced for the European Travel Commission (ETC).

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Research Briefing | Jul 29, 2021

MENA | Oil prices stabilise, Tunisia’s crisis, Lebanon’s new PM

Mena-oil-prices-stabilise-Tunisias-crisis-Lebanons-new-pm

Oil prices have stabilised around $75pb following the OPEC+ deal earlier this
month to taper production cuts starting in August. The improved outlook for oil prices and the prospect of higher oil output will support government finances in the GCC, with the region’s aggregate budget deficit seen narrowing to 1.6% of GDP in 2022.

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Research Briefing | Jul 29, 2021

MENA | Oil prices stabilise, Tunisia’s crisis, Lebanon’s new PM

Mena-oil-prices-stabilise-Tunisias-crisis-Lebanons-new-pm

Oil prices have stabilised around $75pb following the OPEC+ deal earlier this
month to taper production cuts starting in August. The improved outlook for oil prices and the prospect of higher oil output will support government finances in the GCC, with the region’s aggregate budget deficit seen narrowing to 1.6% of GDP in 2022.

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Research Briefing | Jul 28, 2021

Zambia – August elections a pivotal moment

The Zambia national elections that will be held on August 12 is the most unpredictable election since the country’s independence. Deteriorating economic conditions have placed President Edgar Lungu in a tough position ahead of the polls. Additionally, questions about whether the elections will be free and fair raise concerns about the country’s democratic institutions.

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Research Briefing | Jul 28, 2021

Zambia – August elections a pivotal moment

The Zambia national elections that will be held on August 12 is the most unpredictable election since the country’s independence. Deteriorating economic conditions have placed President Edgar Lungu in a tough position ahead of the polls. Additionally, questions about whether the elections will be free and fair raise concerns about the country’s democratic institutions.

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Construction site in Sydney, Australia
Blog|28 July 2021

Australia’s cyclical factors drive construction cost growth

Australia’s cyclical factors drive construction cost growth

Although the structural drags on inflation in commodity prices will remain post-COVID, short-term cyclical factors have risen sharply in recent months in Australia. Construction has been a target of the recovery from last year’s COVID recession, both in terms of government policy and spending by households and businesses. At the same time, supply-chain disruptions have hampered the supply of a number of raw materials, resulting in building construction material costs rising rapidly, especially for commodities used in the detached house segment.

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Blog|27 July 2021

Policy-makers bet on construction to escape COVID economic shock

Policy-makers bet on construction to escape COVID economic shock

The construction sector did not escape the coronavirus-induced economic downdraft unscathed. Activity at the global scale fell 1.4% in 2020, with much steeper declines in countries that imposed harsher restrictions. But things are changing.

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Research Briefing | Jul 27, 2021

Norway | A strong bounce back in economic activity in Q2

norway a strong bounce back in economic activity

Signs continue to point towards a strong bounce back in economic activity in
Q2. The vaccine rollout has advanced rapidly in recent weeks and brings the
inoculation rate closer in line with the Nordic average.

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Research Briefing | Jul 27, 2021

Norway | A strong bounce back in economic activity in Q2

norway a strong bounce back in economic activity

Signs continue to point towards a strong bounce back in economic activity in
Q2. The vaccine rollout has advanced rapidly in recent weeks and brings the
inoculation rate closer in line with the Nordic average.

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Research Briefing | Jul 27, 2021

Africa | Zambia: August elections a pivotal moment

cover image of the research briefing

The August 12 national elections could mark a key turning point for Zambia’s future. Deteriorating economic conditions have left President Edgar Lungu struggling for political survival ahead of the polls, while his main rival, successful private sector executive Hakainde Hichilema, has positioned himself as a potential saviour of the economy.

What you will learn:

  • The presidential elections will be the third two-horse race between President Lungu and Hakainde Hichilema.
  • If Mr Lungu gets re-elected, the business environment will remain hostile but, if Mr Hichilema wins, we expect that he will take a more business-friendly approach to policymaking.
  • There are concerns about Mr Lungu illegitimately skewing the voting in his favour.

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Research Briefing | Jul 27, 2021

Africa | Zambia: August elections a pivotal moment

cover image of the research briefing

The August 12 national elections could mark a key turning point for Zambia’s future. Deteriorating economic conditions have left President Edgar Lungu struggling for political survival ahead of the polls, while his main rival, successful private sector executive Hakainde Hichilema, has positioned himself as a potential saviour of the economy.

What you will learn:

  • The presidential elections will be the third two-horse race between President Lungu and Hakainde Hichilema.
  • If Mr Lungu gets re-elected, the business environment will remain hostile but, if Mr Hichilema wins, we expect that he will take a more business-friendly approach to policymaking.
  • There are concerns about Mr Lungu illegitimately skewing the voting in his favour.

Read more

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Research Briefing | Jul 27, 2021

Global | Coronavirus Watch: Delta dilemmas

The spread of the Delta coronavirus variant appears to have usurped inflation as the key concern. The Delta strain will lead to a bumpier and more uncertain path for the global recovery, but for now we think it only warrants only a small adjustment to our baseline GDP forecasts – the downside risks will be explored in a forthcoming scenario within our Global Scenarios Service.

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Research Briefing | Jul 27, 2021

Global | Coronavirus Watch: Delta dilemmas

The spread of the Delta coronavirus variant appears to have usurped inflation as the key concern. The Delta strain will lead to a bumpier and more uncertain path for the global recovery, but for now we think it only warrants only a small adjustment to our baseline GDP forecasts – the downside risks will be explored in a forthcoming scenario within our Global Scenarios Service.

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Research Briefing | Jul 27, 2021

US | Where are we in the business cycle?

Our analysis of key economic indicators suggests on balance the economy is in the mid-cycle phase of the business cycle. We believe the expansion has legs to run in spite of being past peak growth and policy accommodation. This provides ongoing solid underpinning for corporate profits, albeit with more subdued equity market returns. It also signals we have not reached the peak in long-term rates. Still, there are downside risks on the horizon, including the Delta variant.

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Research Briefing | Jul 27, 2021

US | Where are we in the business cycle?

Our analysis of key economic indicators suggests on balance the economy is in the mid-cycle phase of the business cycle. We believe the expansion has legs to run in spite of being past peak growth and policy accommodation. This provides ongoing solid underpinning for corporate profits, albeit with more subdued equity market returns. It also signals we have not reached the peak in long-term rates. Still, there are downside risks on the horizon, including the Delta variant.

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Research Briefing | Jul 27, 2021

Global | The global housing boom in historical perspective

Our estimates suggest that house prices in advanced economies may be around 10% overvalued versus long-term trends, albeit with considerable variation between economies. This boom, while not as pronounced as the one that preceded the global financial crisis, is still one of the biggest since 1900.

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Research Briefing | Jul 27, 2021

Global | The global housing boom in historical perspective

Our estimates suggest that house prices in advanced economies may be around 10% overvalued versus long-term trends, albeit with considerable variation between economies. This boom, while not as pronounced as the one that preceded the global financial crisis, is still one of the biggest since 1900.

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