Research Briefing | Jul 30, 2021

Peru | Castillo risks are more in the optics than the agenda

Castillo risks are more in the optics than the agenda - iPad

President-elect Pedro Castillo will struggle to pass legislation in Peru’s fragmented Congress, meaning the proposals that markets most worry about are unlikely to become reality.

What you will learn:

  • But if he fails to regain investor confidence, the economic damage could be severe.
  • Should private sector confidence remain low next year, taking the sol to 4.50/$1 in 2022, per capita income would take another year to recover its prepandemic level.
  • Meanwhile, external debt would shoot up to a 20-year high, squeezing the balance sheets of households, firms, and the government.

Back to Resource Hub

Related Services

Post

Employment nowcast suggests limited impact from NICs rise

Our sentiment data-based nowcast, developed with Penta, suggests UK employment growth has continued to slow in recent months.

Find Out More

Post

No shocks from 2025/26 Victorian Budget in Australia

The 2025/26 Victorian Budget offers little to change the near-term outlook for construction activity, as high debt levels constrain the state’s ability to fund new projects.

Find Out More