US | Positioning for rate normalisation
We see the strong pull back in long-term US yields since the peak of the reflation trade this year as an opportunity to enter new positions that capitalise on future macro trends driven by mid-cycle dynamics.
The recent price action means we are now ready to tactically enter trades which will benefit from sustained global growth as we go into 2022.
We telegraphed that the recent June Fed hawkish tilt would lead to a prospectively lower inflation risk premium, but we now believe this has largely played out in fixed income markets
We think the market has downwardly re-priced the Fed funds terminal rate too aggressively, and we see an uptick in the terminal rate from here.
Africa Watchlist 2024: Devaluations, coups, and green hydrogen
Next year holds promise for the dawning of a new industry in Africa and somewhat of a commercial renaissance taking place in Kenya – East Africa’s economic anchor. Our watchlist for 2024 also foregrounds major currency devaluations in Ethiopia and Egypt and a strong probability of coups d’état in Cameroon and Tunisia. We expect support for the African National Congress (ANC) to drop below 50% in South Africa's general elections, but that coalitions with smaller parties will allow the ruling party to cling to power.Find Out More
Capital catalysts – Funding development when budgets are tight in Africa
In this presentation deck, we grappled with some of the Africa’s most pressing issues for 2024 and beyond. We explored Africa’s alternative funding strategies during challenging times, examined the continent’s growth hotspot, and unpacked South Africa’s political economy in the lead up to the general elections in 2024.Find Out More