MENA | Oil prices stabilise, Tunisia’s crisis, Lebanon’s new PM
Oil prices have stabilised around $75pb following the OPEC+ deal earlier this
month to taper production cuts starting in August. The improved outlook for oil prices and the prospect of higher oil output will support government finances in the GCC, with the region’s aggregate budget deficit seen narrowing to 1.6% of GDP in 2022.
What you will learn from this report:
- There has been limited reaction on the Tunisian streets after President Kais Saied sacked the prime minister and suspended parliament on 25 July even though he may have overstepped his authority.
- The move will probably complicate negotiations with the IMF, exacerbating external liquidity pressures and potentially leading to further credit rating downgrades.
- Lebanon’s new prime minister-designate, Najib Mikati, hopes to break the political impasse and form a government. But even cabinet formation will by no means guarantee implementation of the reforms needed for confidence and capital to return.
Easing financial conditions offer CRE some respite
Our measure of financial conditions has become less restrictive in the US and started to loosen in the eurozone and the UK, reflecting investors' expectations that interest rates have peaked. This should aid the outlook for commercial real estate (CRE) on the margins, although the scale of past rate hikes, sluggish economies, and structural headwinds mean the sector still confronts challenging fundamentals.Find Out More
Eurozone key themes 2024 – A fragile recovery will gain impulse
After a year of stagnating activity, the eurozone economy will continue to struggle to gain traction in the near term given multiple headwinds. But we expect a gradual recovery in 2024 that will gather momentum as consumers regain some of their lost purchasing power and financial conditions ease.Find Out More