Research Briefing | Jul 30, 2021

US | Metro Economic Forecast: San Francisco

Metro Economic Forecast San Francisco June 2021 - iPad

Struggling to recover from the reported exodus of residents during the pandemic, San Francisco has recouped only 28% of its lost jobs from the nadir of the outbreak. This corresponds to a net decline of 10% from the previous peak of Q1 2020 which ranks 46th of the largest 51 metros. San Francisco is expected to see job growth of 2.5% in 2021 but then jump 7.5% in 2022. It is expected to recover all of its lost jobs in Q3 2022.

What you will learn:

  • San Francisco’s data processing, hosting and other information sectors collectively grew 7.5% from Q1 2020 to Q1 2021; computer manufacturing grew another 5.0%; finally, its scientific R&D sector (life sciences) grew 9.0% over the last year with 5,100 added jobs. Still, San Francisco’s office aggregate shed 3.0% over the last year as the metro’s finance and real estate sectors fell 2.3% and 4.5%, respectively. 
  • GDP in San Francisco remains 0.1% below the peak Q4 2019. This ranks 19th of the top 51 metros. However, with its large tech-related base, GDP is expected to grow 9.2% in 2021 and 5.9% in 2022.
  • San Francisco suffered net out-migration of 24,300 from Q1 2020 to Q1 2021. This represented 0.5% of the population. Total population declined 19,600, or -0.4% over the year which compares to an average annual increase of 0.6% from 2014 to 2019.

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