US | Metro Economic Forecast: San Francisco
Struggling to recover from the reported exodus of residents during the pandemic, San Francisco has recouped only 28% of its lost jobs from the nadir of the outbreak. This corresponds to a net decline of 10% from the previous peak of Q1 2020 which ranks 46th of the largest 51 metros. San Francisco is expected to see job growth of 2.5% in 2021 but then jump 7.5% in 2022. It is expected to recover all of its lost jobs in Q3 2022.
What you will learn:
- San Francisco’s data processing, hosting and other information sectors collectively grew 7.5% from Q1 2020 to Q1 2021; computer manufacturing grew another 5.0%; finally, its scientific R&D sector (life sciences) grew 9.0% over the last year with 5,100 added jobs. Still, San Francisco’s office aggregate shed 3.0% over the last year as the metro’s finance and real estate sectors fell 2.3% and 4.5%, respectively.
- GDP in San Francisco remains 0.1% below the peak Q4 2019. This ranks 19th of the top 51 metros. However, with its large tech-related base, GDP is expected to grow 9.2% in 2021 and 5.9% in 2022.
- San Francisco suffered net out-migration of 24,300 from Q1 2020 to Q1 2021. This represented 0.5% of the population. Total population declined 19,600, or -0.4% over the year which compares to an average annual increase of 0.6% from 2014 to 2019.
Tags:
Related Services

Post
Firms must brace for higher ‘new normal’ construction material prices
New research by Oxford Economics suggests that construction materials prices have shifted permanently higher due to the shocks of the past couple of years. Project managers and investors should anticipate costs being at least 15-20% higher in 2024 and onwards than in 2021.
Find Out More
Post
New Activity Trackers suggest momentum is waning
After a choppy first quarter of GDP data, our novel Activity Trackers (which incorporate proprietary daily sentiment data from Penta) suggest that economic momentum in EM Asia is on a softer trend in Q2 (at least outside of China) supporting our view of easing underlying inflationary pressures and diminishing appetite for further rate hikes.
Find Out More