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Research Briefing | Aug 18, 2021

Denmark | Vaccination has limited the Delta variant to a downside risk

Denmark | The vaccination programme has limited the Delta variant to a downside risk

The flash release estimates that GDP expanded 2.2% in Q2, slightly better than our 2.1% estimate, pushing the Danish economy above its pre-pandemic level. We have therefore raised our 2021 GDP growth forecast by 0.1ppt to 3.2%, which will be followed by 3.4% expansion in 2022.

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Research Briefing | Aug 18, 2021

Denmark | Vaccination has limited the Delta variant to a downside risk

Denmark | The vaccination programme has limited the Delta variant to a downside risk

The flash release estimates that GDP expanded 2.2% in Q2, slightly better than our 2.1% estimate, pushing the Danish economy above its pre-pandemic level. We have therefore raised our 2021 GDP growth forecast by 0.1ppt to 3.2%, which will be followed by 3.4% expansion in 2022.

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Research Briefing | Aug 18, 2021

Sweden | We expect strong growth in Q3

Sweden | We expect strong growth in Q3

Sweden’s economy grew by 0.9% q/q in Q2 according to the flash estimate. This was below our forecast and driven by tax changes for registering new cars introduced on 1 April. But the monthly GDP series points to an acceleration through the quarter with growth up to 2.5% in June.

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Research Briefing | Aug 18, 2021

Sweden | We expect strong growth in Q3

Sweden | We expect strong growth in Q3

Sweden’s economy grew by 0.9% q/q in Q2 according to the flash estimate. This was below our forecast and driven by tax changes for registering new cars introduced on 1 April. But the monthly GDP series points to an acceleration through the quarter with growth up to 2.5% in June.

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Research Briefing | Aug 18, 2021

China | No signs yet of a decoupling from the rest of the world

China_no_signs_yet_of_a_decoupling_from_the_rest_of_the_world_Page_1

We recently concluded that, judging by China’s export performance in the last two years, there is little evidence so far that developed countries are decoupling from the country. But what about decoupling by China?

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Research Briefing | Aug 18, 2021

China | No signs yet of a decoupling from the rest of the world

China_no_signs_yet_of_a_decoupling_from_the_rest_of_the_world_Page_1

We recently concluded that, judging by China’s export performance in the last two years, there is little evidence so far that developed countries are decoupling from the country. But what about decoupling by China?

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Research Briefing | Aug 17, 2021

Australia | Recovery tracker falters under weight of lockdowns

Recoverytracker1708

Our recovery tracker has taken a step down due to the Greater Sydney lockdown and snap lockdowns in other capital cities and regions. The tracker had risen above its pre-pandemic level, boosted by the strength in the labour market. But is has now fallen below its pre-pandemic level.

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Research Briefing | Aug 17, 2021

Australia | Recovery tracker falters under weight of lockdowns

Recoverytracker1708

Our recovery tracker has taken a step down due to the Greater Sydney lockdown and snap lockdowns in other capital cities and regions. The tracker had risen above its pre-pandemic level, boosted by the strength in the labour market. But is has now fallen below its pre-pandemic level.

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Research Briefing | Aug 16, 2021

For now, low inventories impede growth and lift inflation

For-now-low-inventories-impede-growth-and-lift inflation

Inventories – normally a strong predictor of the business cycle – are uncharacteristically low, even though global growth is at record highs. This is yet another consequence of the post-pandemic recovery and all its bottlenecks and signal transitory nature of inflation rather than the state of the cycle.

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Research Briefing | Aug 16, 2021

For now, low inventories impede growth and lift inflation

For-now-low-inventories-impede-growth-and-lift inflation

Inventories – normally a strong predictor of the business cycle – are uncharacteristically low, even though global growth is at record highs. This is yet another consequence of the post-pandemic recovery and all its bottlenecks and signal transitory nature of inflation rather than the state of the cycle.

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Research Briefing | Aug 16, 2021

UK | The summer’s looking brighter for the economy

UK | The summer’s looking brighter for the economy

A decent rise in GDP in Q2 confirmed hopes that the relaxation of Covid
restrictions would trigger a strong response from the economy. And the quarter ended on a better-than-expected note for activity.
Timelier, high-frequency, indicators had raised concerns that rising infections
and the “pingdemic” would put the brakes on the recovery. But the latest
evidence went some way to relieving those worries.

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Research Briefing | Aug 16, 2021

UK | The summer’s looking brighter for the economy

UK | The summer’s looking brighter for the economy

A decent rise in GDP in Q2 confirmed hopes that the relaxation of Covid
restrictions would trigger a strong response from the economy. And the quarter ended on a better-than-expected note for activity.
Timelier, high-frequency, indicators had raised concerns that rising infections
and the “pingdemic” would put the brakes on the recovery. But the latest
evidence went some way to relieving those worries.

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Research Briefing | Aug 16, 2021

Finland | GDP for 2020 has been revised down

Finland | GDP for 2020 has been revised down

Finland’s GDP for 2020 has been revised down, with a larger contraction in the first half of the year and a stronger rebound in the second half, while Q1 2021 GDP has been revised up from a mild contraction to flat growth. This affects this year’s average, although the near-term outlook is broadly unchanged with a strong rebound in Q2 and Q3. Our forecast for GDP growth this year is now 3.1%, up from 2.5% seen last month, before a slowdown to 2.1% in 2022.

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Research Briefing | Aug 16, 2021

Finland | GDP for 2020 has been revised down

Finland | GDP for 2020 has been revised down

Finland’s GDP for 2020 has been revised down, with a larger contraction in the first half of the year and a stronger rebound in the second half, while Q1 2021 GDP has been revised up from a mild contraction to flat growth. This affects this year’s average, although the near-term outlook is broadly unchanged with a strong rebound in Q2 and Q3. Our forecast for GDP growth this year is now 3.1%, up from 2.5% seen last month, before a slowdown to 2.1% in 2022.

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Research Briefing | Aug 16, 2021

Japan’s growing debt overhang adds to zombie threat

Japan | Growing debt overhang adds to zombie threat

Business failures in Japan have been stemmed thanks to massive government and bank liquidity support. However, there’s mounting concern regarding debt overhang: A survey of small firms shows that 34% find their debt excessive and that 14% already had excessive debt prior to the pandemic.

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Research Briefing | Aug 16, 2021

Japan’s growing debt overhang adds to zombie threat

Japan | Growing debt overhang adds to zombie threat

Business failures in Japan have been stemmed thanks to massive government and bank liquidity support. However, there’s mounting concern regarding debt overhang: A survey of small firms shows that 34% find their debt excessive and that 14% already had excessive debt prior to the pandemic.

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Research Briefing | Aug 13, 2021

US South and Midwest regional inflation runs hotter than rest

South and Midwest regional inflation runs hotter than rest - iPad

Headline CPI inflation rose 5.4% y/y in July 2021, but regional inflation is uneven, with prices up 5.9% y/y in the Midwest and 5.8% y/y in the South on the high end and 5.2% y/y in the West and 4.3% y/y in the Northeast on the low end. Supply-side constraints are raising prices, and stronger base effects, lesser economic slack, and tighter labor markets underpin comparatively higher inflation readings in the South and Midwest. Our recovery trackers confirm the South and Midwest led the recovery in H1 2021.

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Research Briefing | Aug 13, 2021

US South and Midwest regional inflation runs hotter than rest

South and Midwest regional inflation runs hotter than rest - iPad

Headline CPI inflation rose 5.4% y/y in July 2021, but regional inflation is uneven, with prices up 5.9% y/y in the Midwest and 5.8% y/y in the South on the high end and 5.2% y/y in the West and 4.3% y/y in the Northeast on the low end. Supply-side constraints are raising prices, and stronger base effects, lesser economic slack, and tighter labor markets underpin comparatively higher inflation readings in the South and Midwest. Our recovery trackers confirm the South and Midwest led the recovery in H1 2021.

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Research Briefing | Aug 13, 2021

MENA | Saudi Q2 GDP and budget deficit, Egypt inflation

MENA | Saudi Q2 GDP and budget deficit, Egypt inflation

Saudi Arabia’s GDP rose 1.5% y/y in Q2 according to the flash estimate. This was mainly driven by a boost from non-oil activity, which increased 10.1% y/y (1.3% q/q growth), but the oil sector also strengthened due to higher oil prices and production.
The Saudi budget deficit narrowed to an estimated 0.6% of GDP in Q2 on the back of higher oil prices and a surge in tax revenues. According to the finance ministry, oil revenues rose 38% y/y, while non-oil revenues tripled to SAR116bn reflecting the effect of the tripling of VAT in July last year.

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Research Briefing | Aug 13, 2021

MENA | Saudi Q2 GDP and budget deficit, Egypt inflation

MENA | Saudi Q2 GDP and budget deficit, Egypt inflation

Saudi Arabia’s GDP rose 1.5% y/y in Q2 according to the flash estimate. This was mainly driven by a boost from non-oil activity, which increased 10.1% y/y (1.3% q/q growth), but the oil sector also strengthened due to higher oil prices and production.
The Saudi budget deficit narrowed to an estimated 0.6% of GDP in Q2 on the back of higher oil prices and a surge in tax revenues. According to the finance ministry, oil revenues rose 38% y/y, while non-oil revenues tripled to SAR116bn reflecting the effect of the tripling of VAT in July last year.

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Research Briefing | Aug 12, 2021

Eurozone | Recovery Tracker shows momentum stalling, not reversing

Eurozone | Recovery Tracker shows momentum stalling, not reversing

Our Recovery Tracker recorded a second consecutive mild contraction in the week ending July 25, falling 0.3pts to 85. This suggests momentum may be stalling in the eurozone, but we caution against overinterpretation just yet.

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Research Briefing | Aug 12, 2021

Eurozone | Recovery Tracker shows momentum stalling, not reversing

Eurozone | Recovery Tracker shows momentum stalling, not reversing

Our Recovery Tracker recorded a second consecutive mild contraction in the week ending July 25, falling 0.3pts to 85. This suggests momentum may be stalling in the eurozone, but we caution against overinterpretation just yet.

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Research Briefing | Aug 12, 2021

Australia | It’s a race: reopening waiting on vaccine rollout

Copy of Ipad Frame (38)

The protracted Greater Sydney lockdown, and return to lockdown conditions in other capital cities and regions has led to a marked downgrade in our forecasts for 2021. Uncertainty abounds, with the highly transmissible Delta strain of the coronavirus making suppression strategies very difficult to achieve and increasing the chance of future outbreaks.

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Research Briefing | Aug 12, 2021

Australia | It’s a race: reopening waiting on vaccine rollout

Copy of Ipad Frame (38)

The protracted Greater Sydney lockdown, and return to lockdown conditions in other capital cities and regions has led to a marked downgrade in our forecasts for 2021. Uncertainty abounds, with the highly transmissible Delta strain of the coronavirus making suppression strategies very difficult to achieve and increasing the chance of future outbreaks.

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Research Briefing | Aug 11, 2021

Russia | Recovery Tracker afflicted by Delta variant

Russia | Recovery Tracker afflicted by Delta variant

The rapid spread of the Delta variant has resulted in a third wave of Covid-19
infections, almost as severe as the wave that struck the country last winter. But activity has proven resilient: The Recovery Tracker remains above 90,
compared to 84 last December. And the current wave appears to have peaked.

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Research Briefing | Aug 11, 2021

Russia | Recovery Tracker afflicted by Delta variant

Russia | Recovery Tracker afflicted by Delta variant

The rapid spread of the Delta variant has resulted in a third wave of Covid-19
infections, almost as severe as the wave that struck the country last winter. But activity has proven resilient: The Recovery Tracker remains above 90,
compared to 84 last December. And the current wave appears to have peaked.

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Research Briefing | Aug 10, 2021

Global | Coronavirus Watch: Delta risks versus inflation risks

We estimate world GDP surpassed pre-pandemic levels in Q2. But in recent weeks surging cases of the Delta variant have added to concerns over the strength and breadth of the recovery.

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Research Briefing | Aug 10, 2021

Global | Coronavirus Watch: Delta risks versus inflation risks

We estimate world GDP surpassed pre-pandemic levels in Q2. But in recent weeks surging cases of the Delta variant have added to concerns over the strength and breadth of the recovery.

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Research Briefing | Aug 9, 2021

London Monitor | London to grow by 7.1% as most remaining restrictions are eased

London Monitor | London to grow by 7.1% as most remaining restrictions are eased

Rising coronavirus cases have resulted in London moving further from normality throughout June and into July. London’s normality score in mid-July was at its lowest level since February 2021, reversing the improvements made throughout the latest lockdown.
Business activity and confidence in London continued to improve in June, according to the latest survey evidence, supporting our view of a strong rebound in growth in London in Q2 2021.

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Research Briefing | Aug 9, 2021

London Monitor | London to grow by 7.1% as most remaining restrictions are eased

London Monitor | London to grow by 7.1% as most remaining restrictions are eased

Rising coronavirus cases have resulted in London moving further from normality throughout June and into July. London’s normality score in mid-July was at its lowest level since February 2021, reversing the improvements made throughout the latest lockdown.
Business activity and confidence in London continued to improve in June, according to the latest survey evidence, supporting our view of a strong rebound in growth in London in Q2 2021.

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Blog|6 August 2021

Three ways supply chains are evolving (for the better) following the pandemic

Three ways supply chains are evolving (for the better) following the pandemic

For most product-based businesses, the supply chain problems that have defined the Covid-19 era are not going away quickly. Executives must still place bets on consumer demand and the availability of key components a year or more into the future instead of the six-month (at most) lead times common before the pandemic.

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Research Briefing | Aug 6, 2021

Global industrial capacity tightness to take time to relieve

Industrial capacity tightness to take time to relieve

Recovering consumer demand has clashed with supply constraints, causing inventories relative to demand to fall in several industries, such as autos, electronics, machinery, and wood. However, the latest data to June indicates inventory tightness in several sectors may be starting to ease.

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Research Briefing | Aug 6, 2021

Global industrial capacity tightness to take time to relieve

Industrial capacity tightness to take time to relieve

Recovering consumer demand has clashed with supply constraints, causing inventories relative to demand to fall in several industries, such as autos, electronics, machinery, and wood. However, the latest data to June indicates inventory tightness in several sectors may be starting to ease.

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Research Briefing | Aug 5, 2021

Canada | Inflation across Canada, where it’s hot and where it’s not

Inflation across Canada, where it’s hot and where it’s not - iPad

Headline CPI inflation in Canada was up 3.1% y/y in June, and we expect that a transient release of pent-up demand, supply shortages, and other pandemic-related factors will keep it well above the Bank of Canada’s 2% target in the near term. But there are important regional differences, with y/y inflation in June ranging from a low of 1.8% in Saskatchewan to a high of 5.3% in PEI.

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Research Briefing | Aug 5, 2021

Canada | Inflation across Canada, where it’s hot and where it’s not

Inflation across Canada, where it’s hot and where it’s not - iPad

Headline CPI inflation in Canada was up 3.1% y/y in June, and we expect that a transient release of pent-up demand, supply shortages, and other pandemic-related factors will keep it well above the Bank of Canada’s 2% target in the near term. But there are important regional differences, with y/y inflation in June ranging from a low of 1.8% in Saskatchewan to a high of 5.3% in PEI.

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Research Briefing | Aug 5, 2021

US | Recovery Tracker shows signs of peak growth

US Recovery Tracker shows signs of peak growth - iPad

The US Recovery Tracker plateaued in July after a five-month winning streak. While consumers and businesses continue to spend, peak growth is behind us as the tracker rose just 0.1ppt to 97.0 in the week ended July 23, leaving its level unchanged from three weeks ago.

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Research Briefing | Aug 5, 2021

US | Recovery Tracker shows signs of peak growth

US Recovery Tracker shows signs of peak growth - iPad

The US Recovery Tracker plateaued in July after a five-month winning streak. While consumers and businesses continue to spend, peak growth is behind us as the tracker rose just 0.1ppt to 97.0 in the week ended July 23, leaving its level unchanged from three weeks ago.

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Research Briefing | Aug 5, 2021

US | Metro Economic Forecast: Philadelphia

Metro Economic Forecast Philadelphia June 2021 - iPad

Despite having a diverse economy, Philadelphia has recovered only 55% of its lost jobs from the nadir of the pandemic. Its net decline of 6.5% from the previous peak of Q1 2020 ranks 33rd of the largest 51 metros and below the US net decline of 5.6%. Philadelphia is expected to see job growth of 3.6% in 2021, 4.2% in 2022, and is expected to recover all of its lost jobs in Q3 2022. Its expected average annual job growth of 0.3% in 2023 to 2025 ranks 42nd of 51 metros. In addition to leisure and hospitality, Philadelphia’s large education and health services sector is expected to contribute much of this job growth.

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Research Briefing | Aug 5, 2021

US | Metro Economic Forecast: Philadelphia

Metro Economic Forecast Philadelphia June 2021 - iPad

Despite having a diverse economy, Philadelphia has recovered only 55% of its lost jobs from the nadir of the pandemic. Its net decline of 6.5% from the previous peak of Q1 2020 ranks 33rd of the largest 51 metros and below the US net decline of 5.6%. Philadelphia is expected to see job growth of 3.6% in 2021, 4.2% in 2022, and is expected to recover all of its lost jobs in Q3 2022. Its expected average annual job growth of 0.3% in 2023 to 2025 ranks 42nd of 51 metros. In addition to leisure and hospitality, Philadelphia’s large education and health services sector is expected to contribute much of this job growth.

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