Research Briefing | Aug 18, 2021

Denmark | Vaccination has limited the Delta variant to a downside risk

Denmark | The vaccination programme has limited the Delta variant to a downside risk

The flash release estimates that GDP expanded 2.2% in Q2, slightly better than our 2.1% estimate, pushing the Danish economy above its pre-pandemic level. We have therefore raised our 2021 GDP growth forecast by 0.1ppt to 3.2%, which will be followed by 3.4% expansion in 2022.

What you will learn:

  • Growth this summer should be supported by a partial rotation back into spending on services and buoyant retail activity as consumers continue to unwind excess savings accumulated during the pandemic.
  • The Delta variant remains the key downside risk. But Covid cases remain contained so far
  • Goods inflation remains elevated, but services inflation fell back.
  • Our forecasts up to 2024 for all of the key economic indicators including GDP, Consumer demand, exports of goods and services, Domestic demand

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