Research Briefing | Aug 17, 2021

Australia | Recovery tracker falters under weight of lockdowns

Recoverytracker1708

Our recovery tracker has taken a step down due to the Greater Sydney lockdown and snap lockdowns in other capital cities and regions. The tracker had risen above its pre-pandemic level, boosted by the strength in the labour market. But is has now fallen below its pre-pandemic level.

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  • Lockdown stringency measures are near their highest level, despite lower case numbers; state governments are being even more proactive in preventing outbreaks of the Delta variant. In contrast, the growth in payroll jobs and the stock market since early 2020 are boosting our recovery tracker.
  • We have combined information from a disparate set of sources to gauge the economy’s recovery momentum. The recent spread of the delta variant has led to lockdowns, that present another hurdle to a full recovery.
  • Official figures take a considerable time to quantify the scale of disruption the economy faces. To supplement this, we are monitoring a range of high frequency indicators. 
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