Australia | Recovery tracker falters under weight of lockdowns
Our recovery tracker has taken a step down due to the Greater Sydney lockdown and snap lockdowns in other capital cities and regions. The tracker had risen above its pre-pandemic level, boosted by the strength in the labour market. But is has now fallen below its pre-pandemic level.
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- Lockdown stringency measures are near their highest level, despite lower case numbers; state governments are being even more proactive in preventing outbreaks of the Delta variant. In contrast, the growth in payroll jobs and the stock market since early 2020 are boosting our recovery tracker.
- We have combined information from a disparate set of sources to gauge the economy’s recovery momentum. The recent spread of the delta variant has led to lockdowns, that present another hurdle to a full recovery.
- Official figures take a considerable time to quantify the scale of disruption the economy faces. To supplement this, we are monitoring a range of high frequency indicators.
Africa Watchlist 2024: Devaluations, coups, and green hydrogen
Next year holds promise for the dawning of a new industry in Africa and somewhat of a commercial renaissance taking place in Kenya – East Africa’s economic anchor. Our watchlist for 2024 also foregrounds major currency devaluations in Ethiopia and Egypt and a strong probability of coups d’état in Cameroon and Tunisia. We expect support for the African National Congress (ANC) to drop below 50% in South Africa's general elections, but that coalitions with smaller parties will allow the ruling party to cling to power.Find Out More
Capital catalysts – Funding development when budgets are tight in Africa
In this presentation deck, we grappled with some of the Africa’s most pressing issues for 2024 and beyond. We explored Africa’s alternative funding strategies during challenging times, examined the continent’s growth hotspot, and unpacked South Africa’s political economy in the lead up to the general elections in 2024.Find Out More