Sweden | We expect strong growth in Q3
Sweden’s economy grew by 0.9% q/q in Q2 according to the flash estimate. This was below our forecast and driven by tax changes for registering new cars introduced on 1 April. But the monthly GDP series points to an acceleration through the quarter with growth up to 2.5% in June.
What you will learn:
- High-frequency indicators point to the pace of the recovery
slowing recently, probably due to seasonal factors
- The job recovery continues at a steady pace
- The pandemic brought a major fiscal and monetary policy response that has supported jobs and incomes. However, we expect the fiscal impulse to turn negative next year.
- Our forecasts up to 2024 for all of the key economic indicators including GDP, Consumer demand, exports of goods and services, Domestic demand
Finland’s growth forecast cut amid weak confidence and soaring inflation
We have lowered our 2022 GDP growth forecast for Finland to 1.5% from 1.7% last month, as weakening confidence further dampens the outlook. We expect inflation to peak higher with a greater passthrough to core prices, squeezing real incomes and denting consumption. Russia has accounted for almost 10% of Finland's goods trade, among the highest in Europe.Find Out More
Why we see eurozone inflation slowing sharply next year
We have revised our 2022 eurozone inflation forecasts sharply higher, to 6.0%, since the start of the Ukraine war, as energy and food prices began to soar and new supply bottlenecks emerged. That said, we still see inflation decelerating sharply to 1.3% in 2023, putting us below consensus. While we recognise significant risks to our views, inflation should slow to below 2% in H2 2023.Find Out More