Research Briefing | Aug 5, 2021

US | Recovery Tracker shows signs of peak growth

US Recovery Tracker shows signs of peak growth - iPad

The US Recovery Tracker plateaued in July after a five-month winning streak. While consumers and businesses continue to spend, peak growth is behind us as the tracker rose just 0.1ppt to 97.0 in the week ended July 23, leaving its level unchanged from three weeks ago.

What you will learn:

  • Financial conditions eased on reduced equity market volatility and low interest rates. Expanded reopenings and vaccines are slowly pushing demand, mobility, and employment back to pre-pandemic levels even as the Delta variant casts a cloud over the recovery. 
  • Most of our State Recovery Trackers fell in the latest week, with the deepest declines in the South, led by Louisiana, Mississippi, Florida, and Alabama.
  • New Covid-19 cases have skyrocketed since early July, threatening to slow the recovery. Hospitalizations and deaths are ticking higher, but vaccines make economic activity less vulnerable to the virus than in past waves.

Back to Resource Hub

Related Services

Seoul, South Korea

Post

BoK’s monetary policy to tighten even as hiking cycle ends

Even without rate hikes, central banks' monetary policies can effectively tighten if the nominal neutral rate falls below the policy rate. We expect this will be the case for the Bank of Korea this year, as the gap between the policy rate and the nominal neutral rate widens.

Find Out More

Post

China: Emerging green shoots in Spring, but not out of the woods

We now incorporate a faster recovery from the post-Covid exit wave and raise our 2023 full-year GDP growth forecast to 4.5% (from 4.2% previously).

Find Out More