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Research Briefing | Jul 27, 2021

Europe | Inflation threats pose dilemmas for CEE policymakers

Ipad Frame -Europe-Inflation-threats-pose-dilemmas-for-CEE-policymakers

Elevated inflation is giving policymakers in Central and Eastern Europe headaches. Two of the regions’ outperformers, Poland and Hungary, are seeing headline inflation at around 5%. While we think many of the inflation drivers are transitory, some pose genuine risks.

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Research Briefing | Jul 27, 2021

Europe | Inflation threats pose dilemmas for CEE policymakers

Ipad Frame -Europe-Inflation-threats-pose-dilemmas-for-CEE-policymakers

Elevated inflation is giving policymakers in Central and Eastern Europe headaches. Two of the regions’ outperformers, Poland and Hungary, are seeing headline inflation at around 5%. While we think many of the inflation drivers are transitory, some pose genuine risks.

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Research Briefing | Jul 27, 2021

APAC | Why scars from the pandemic will vary across the region

an image of the research briefing

Following record declines in 2020, we forecast strong 6.1% pa APAC GDP growth over the next two years. Nonetheless, the permanent loss in output from the pandemic will be sizable: We now project regional GDP levels to be 2.9% lower by 2025, compared to our pre-pandemic forecast. However, the extent of economic scarring – that is, permanent loss in GDP – varies significantly across the region. We forecast Taiwan GDP to be 7.6% higher than before. In contrast, India and the Philippines are the main losers, with GDP levels estimated to be more than 8% lower.

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Research Briefing | Jul 27, 2021

APAC | Why scars from the pandemic will vary across the region

an image of the research briefing

Following record declines in 2020, we forecast strong 6.1% pa APAC GDP growth over the next two years. Nonetheless, the permanent loss in output from the pandemic will be sizable: We now project regional GDP levels to be 2.9% lower by 2025, compared to our pre-pandemic forecast. However, the extent of economic scarring – that is, permanent loss in GDP – varies significantly across the region. We forecast Taiwan GDP to be 7.6% higher than before. In contrast, India and the Philippines are the main losers, with GDP levels estimated to be more than 8% lower.

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Re entering dollar shorts
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Research Briefing | Jul 27, 2021

Re-entering Dollar shorts

Copy of Ipad Frame (37)

There have been long, multi-year cycles in the US dollar over the last 50 years, often linked to divergent monetary policies or structural re-ratings of asset prices relative to major economies. The post Covid-19 downturn and new growth cycle have temporarily disrupted what we believe is still a long-term USD bear trend. As part of this cyclical view, we re-iterate a bearish USD call, predicated on a further steepening of the US yield curve as well as a resumption of growth outperformance outside the US.

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Research Briefing | Jul 27, 2021

Re-entering Dollar shorts

Copy of Ipad Frame (37)

There have been long, multi-year cycles in the US dollar over the last 50 years, often linked to divergent monetary policies or structural re-ratings of asset prices relative to major economies. The post Covid-19 downturn and new growth cycle have temporarily disrupted what we believe is still a long-term USD bear trend. As part of this cyclical view, we re-iterate a bearish USD call, predicated on a further steepening of the US yield curve as well as a resumption of growth outperformance outside the US.

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Research Briefing | Jul 26, 2021

US | Metro Economic Forecast: Dallas

Metro Economic Forecast Dallas June 2021 - iPad

Benefitting from a succession of corporate relocations prior to the pandemic, Dallas has recovered 68% of its lost jobs from the nadir of the pandemic, ahead of most of the US. Its net decline of 3.0% from the previous peak of Q1 2020 ranks 9th of the largest 51 metros and better than the US net decline of 5.6%. Dallas is expected to see job growth of 3.8% in 2021, 2.9% in 2022 and is expected to recover all of its lost jobs in Q4 2021. Its expected average annual job growth of 0.9% from 2023 to 2025 ranks 14th of 51 metros.

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Research Briefing | Jul 26, 2021

US | Metro Economic Forecast: Dallas

Metro Economic Forecast Dallas June 2021 - iPad

Benefitting from a succession of corporate relocations prior to the pandemic, Dallas has recovered 68% of its lost jobs from the nadir of the pandemic, ahead of most of the US. Its net decline of 3.0% from the previous peak of Q1 2020 ranks 9th of the largest 51 metros and better than the US net decline of 5.6%. Dallas is expected to see job growth of 3.8% in 2021, 2.9% in 2022 and is expected to recover all of its lost jobs in Q4 2021. Its expected average annual job growth of 0.9% from 2023 to 2025 ranks 14th of 51 metros.

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Research Briefing | Jul 26, 2021

US | Metro Economic Forecast: Denver

Metro Economic Forecast Denver June 2021 - iPad

Denver has recovered 55% of its lost jobs from the nadir of the pandemic. This corresponds to a net decline of 4.7% from the previous peak of Q1 2020 which ranks 19th of the largest 51 metros and better than the US net decline of 5.6%. Denver is expected to see job growth of 3.4% in 2021, 4.3% in 2022, and is expected to recover all of its lost jobs in Q1 2022. Looking beyond next year, Denver is expected to see average annual job growth of 1.0% from 2023 to 2025 which ranks 9th of 51 metros.

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Research Briefing | Jul 26, 2021

US | Metro Economic Forecast: Denver

Metro Economic Forecast Denver June 2021 - iPad

Denver has recovered 55% of its lost jobs from the nadir of the pandemic. This corresponds to a net decline of 4.7% from the previous peak of Q1 2020 which ranks 19th of the largest 51 metros and better than the US net decline of 5.6%. Denver is expected to see job growth of 3.4% in 2021, 4.3% in 2022, and is expected to recover all of its lost jobs in Q1 2022. Looking beyond next year, Denver is expected to see average annual job growth of 1.0% from 2023 to 2025 which ranks 9th of 51 metros.

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Ungated Post|26 July 2021

Oxford Economics’ Tatiana Orlova ranked No. 1 by Bloomberg

Oxford Economics’ Tatiana Orlova ranked No. 1 by Bloomberg

Tatiana OrlovaWe are delighted to announce that Tatiana Orlova, Lead EM Economist at Oxford Economics, has maintained her No. 1 Bloomberg ranking for her forecasting of Russia’s policy rate.

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The Concerts and Live Entertainment Industry drives significant economic activity that supports businesses, households, and government finances across the United States.

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Research Briefing | Jul 23, 2021

US | Metro Economic Forecast: Phoenix

Metro Economic Forecast Phoenix June 2021 - iPad

Phoenix has recovered 66% of its lost jobs from the nadir of the pandemic. This corresponds to a net decline of 2.7% from the previous peak of Q1 2020. This net decline ranked 6th of the largest 51 metros and is far better than the US net decline of 5.6%. Phoenix is expected to see job growth of 3.4% in 2021, 2.9% in 2022, and is expected to recover all of its lost jobs in Q3 2021. Looking beyond next year, Phoenix is expected to see average annual job growth of 1.0% from 2023 to 2025 which ranks 9th of 51. Population growth will fuel this growth with concentrations in health care, construction, and state and local government.

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Research Briefing | Jul 23, 2021

US | Metro Economic Forecast: Phoenix

Metro Economic Forecast Phoenix June 2021 - iPad

Phoenix has recovered 66% of its lost jobs from the nadir of the pandemic. This corresponds to a net decline of 2.7% from the previous peak of Q1 2020. This net decline ranked 6th of the largest 51 metros and is far better than the US net decline of 5.6%. Phoenix is expected to see job growth of 3.4% in 2021, 2.9% in 2022, and is expected to recover all of its lost jobs in Q3 2021. Looking beyond next year, Phoenix is expected to see average annual job growth of 1.0% from 2023 to 2025 which ranks 9th of 51. Population growth will fuel this growth with concentrations in health care, construction, and state and local government.

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Research Briefing | Jul 23, 2021

US | Metro Economic Forecast: Los Angeles

Metro Economic Forecast Los Angeles June 2021 - iPad

Los Angeles has recovered 28% of its lost jobs from the nadir of the pandemic. This corresponds to a net decline of 10.4% from the previous peak of Q1 2020 which ranks in the bottom five of the largest 51 metros and worse than the US net decline of 5.6%. Los Angeles is expected to see job growth of 2.5% in 2021, and 7.1% in 2022 and is expected to recover all of its lost jobs in Q3 2022. Los Angeles is expected to see average annual job growth of 0.7% from 2023 to 2025 which ranks 23rd of 51 metros. With its large film sector, theme parks, and tourism sector, Los Angeles suffered more than most metros and is expected to recover at a moderate rate.

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Research Briefing | Jul 23, 2021

US | Metro Economic Forecast: Los Angeles

Metro Economic Forecast Los Angeles June 2021 - iPad

Los Angeles has recovered 28% of its lost jobs from the nadir of the pandemic. This corresponds to a net decline of 10.4% from the previous peak of Q1 2020 which ranks in the bottom five of the largest 51 metros and worse than the US net decline of 5.6%. Los Angeles is expected to see job growth of 2.5% in 2021, and 7.1% in 2022 and is expected to recover all of its lost jobs in Q3 2022. Los Angeles is expected to see average annual job growth of 0.7% from 2023 to 2025 which ranks 23rd of 51 metros. With its large film sector, theme parks, and tourism sector, Los Angeles suffered more than most metros and is expected to recover at a moderate rate.

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Research Briefing | Jul 23, 2021

Africa | Country Insight: Nigeria

Africa Country Insight Nigeria - iPad

Progress in passing the Petroleum Industry Bill (PIB) and official adoption of the Nafex rate are two significant policy steps in the rights direction. However, with elevated price inflation and just 30.6 million Nigerians out of a population of nearly 210 million considered fully employed, households are under severe strain. Long-standing issues plaguing the monetary sector (external liquidity constraints and elevated inflation) will have to be addressed for the recovery to gain real traction.

What you will learn:

  • A tense political environment has encouraged authorities to delay the suspension of subsidies, but fiscal pressures and the regulatory requirements stemming from the PIB could force the government to scrap this form of financial support.
  • Public debt is becoming increasingly expensive, with a larger proportion of external, commercial debt. This debt profile also contains a significant level of currency and liquidity risk, which is particularly relevant in the Nigerian context.
  • Lagos is by far the largest consumer market in West Africa, with spending totalling an estimated N13.2trn in 2020. Looking ahead, we expect the strongest growth in consumer spending to take place in Abuja and the smaller markets of Port Harcourt and Onitsha.

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Research Briefing | Jul 23, 2021

Africa | Country Insight: Nigeria

Africa Country Insight Nigeria - iPad

Progress in passing the Petroleum Industry Bill (PIB) and official adoption of the Nafex rate are two significant policy steps in the rights direction. However, with elevated price inflation and just 30.6 million Nigerians out of a population of nearly 210 million considered fully employed, households are under severe strain. Long-standing issues plaguing the monetary sector (external liquidity constraints and elevated inflation) will have to be addressed for the recovery to gain real traction.

What you will learn:

  • A tense political environment has encouraged authorities to delay the suspension of subsidies, but fiscal pressures and the regulatory requirements stemming from the PIB could force the government to scrap this form of financial support.
  • Public debt is becoming increasingly expensive, with a larger proportion of external, commercial debt. This debt profile also contains a significant level of currency and liquidity risk, which is particularly relevant in the Nigerian context.
  • Lagos is by far the largest consumer market in West Africa, with spending totalling an estimated N13.2trn in 2020. Looking ahead, we expect the strongest growth in consumer spending to take place in Abuja and the smaller markets of Port Harcourt and Onitsha.

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Blog|23 July 2021

Will travel become less globalised in a post-pandemic world?

Will travel become less globalised in a post-pandemic world?

Travel and tourism, like many other industries, had become highly globalised in the years leading up to the COVID-19 pandemic. In 2019 long-haul travel—travel between major regions such as Asia-Pacific and Europe—accounted for more than 21% of all international trips. This was a record high that followed years of steady increase.

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Research Briefing | Jul 23, 2021

Eurozone | Inflation expectations are rising, not spiraling

Ipad Frame - Inflation expectations are rising, not spiraling

Eurozone inflation is set to push above the ECB’s 2% target for the first time since 2018. But we think higher near-term inflation is unlikely to stick unless expectations shift up a gear. Our new gauge of long-term inflation expectations is below both the 2% target and pre-pandemic levels, suggesting the current burst is more a welcome sign of reflation rather than a threat to price stability.

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Research Briefing | Jul 23, 2021

Eurozone | Inflation expectations are rising, not spiraling

Ipad Frame - Inflation expectations are rising, not spiraling

Eurozone inflation is set to push above the ECB’s 2% target for the first time since 2018. But we think higher near-term inflation is unlikely to stick unless expectations shift up a gear. Our new gauge of long-term inflation expectations is below both the 2% target and pre-pandemic levels, suggesting the current burst is more a welcome sign of reflation rather than a threat to price stability.

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Research Briefing | Jul 23, 2021

Eurozone | Delta variant becomes key downside risk to the outlook

Ipad Frame - Delta variant becomes key downside risk to the outlook

We expect the more transmissible Delta coronavirus variant will have a much lower impact on European economies than previous waves, although some will be more affected than others. Vaccines have significantly weakened the link between cases and hospitalisations, reducing the likelihood of lockdowns.

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Research Briefing | Jul 23, 2021

Eurozone | Delta variant becomes key downside risk to the outlook

Ipad Frame - Delta variant becomes key downside risk to the outlook

We expect the more transmissible Delta coronavirus variant will have a much lower impact on European economies than previous waves, although some will be more affected than others. Vaccines have significantly weakened the link between cases and hospitalisations, reducing the likelihood of lockdowns.

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Research Briefing | Jul 23, 2021

India | Monetary policy may turn a corner before year-end

a picture of the research briefing

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has played a key role in leading India’s pandemic policy response. While elevated inflation has taken rate cuts off the table since Q2 2020, the central bank has maintained an accommodative stance and has continued to ease through non-rate measures, as we had anticipated. But, with inflation spiking anew in Q2 2021, the debate on policy normalisation has turned more intense.

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Research Briefing | Jul 23, 2021

India | Monetary policy may turn a corner before year-end

a picture of the research briefing

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has played a key role in leading India’s pandemic policy response. While elevated inflation has taken rate cuts off the table since Q2 2020, the central bank has maintained an accommodative stance and has continued to ease through non-rate measures, as we had anticipated. But, with inflation spiking anew in Q2 2021, the debate on policy normalisation has turned more intense.

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Research Briefing | Jul 22, 2021

US | Recovery Tracker climbs in early July despite Delta risks

US Recovery Tracker climbs in early July despite Delta risks - iPad

The US Recovery Tracker added to its nearly five-month streak of weekly gains in the week ended July 9, rising 0.6ppts to 97.6. Consumers continued to spend on restaurant outings, hotel accommodations, and flights, while businesses responded to robust demand by ramping up production.

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Research Briefing | Jul 22, 2021

US | Recovery Tracker climbs in early July despite Delta risks

US Recovery Tracker climbs in early July despite Delta risks - iPad

The US Recovery Tracker added to its nearly five-month streak of weekly gains in the week ended July 9, rising 0.6ppts to 97.6. Consumers continued to spend on restaurant outings, hotel accommodations, and flights, while businesses responded to robust demand by ramping up production.

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Research Briefing | Jul 22, 2021

US | Metro Economic Forecast: Salt Lake City

Metro Economic Forecast Salt Lake City June 2021 - iPad

Ranking near the top in nearly every metric, Salt Lake City has recovered 94% of its lost jobs from the nadir of the pandemic. Its net decline of 0.4% from the previous peak of Q1 2020 outranks all of the largest 51 metros. The state of Utah has recovered all of its lost jobs, as has Idaho. Salt Lake City is expected to surpass its previous 2020 peak in Q2 2021 and see job growth of 3.8% by the end of 2021 and 2.2% in 2022. Salt Lake City is expected to see average annual job growth of 0.9% from 2023 to 2025 which ranks 14th of 51 metros. State and local government is expected to contribute the most new jobs from 2023-2025 with 22% of the growth.

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Research Briefing | Jul 22, 2021

US | Metro Economic Forecast: Salt Lake City

Metro Economic Forecast Salt Lake City June 2021 - iPad

Ranking near the top in nearly every metric, Salt Lake City has recovered 94% of its lost jobs from the nadir of the pandemic. Its net decline of 0.4% from the previous peak of Q1 2020 outranks all of the largest 51 metros. The state of Utah has recovered all of its lost jobs, as has Idaho. Salt Lake City is expected to surpass its previous 2020 peak in Q2 2021 and see job growth of 3.8% by the end of 2021 and 2.2% in 2022. Salt Lake City is expected to see average annual job growth of 0.9% from 2023 to 2025 which ranks 14th of 51 metros. State and local government is expected to contribute the most new jobs from 2023-2025 with 22% of the growth.

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Research Briefing | Jul 22, 2021

US | Metro Economic Forecast: New York

Metro Economic Forecast New York June 2021 - iPad

Although it suffered more than most at the start of the pandemic, New York has recovered 45% of its lost jobs from the nadir of Q2 2020. This corresponds to a net decline of 9.9% from the previous peak of Q1 2020 which ranks 45th of the largest 51 metros and worse than the 5.6% US net job decline. New York is expected to see job growth of 3.6% in 2021, 6.5% in 2022 and is expected to recover its lost jobs in Q4 2022. It is then expected to see average annual job growth of 0.6% from 2023 to 2025 which ranks 28th of 51 metros. The accommodation and food services sector is expected to contribute 33% of the growth followed by private education with 13% of the 2023–2025 growth.

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Research Briefing | Jul 22, 2021

US | Metro Economic Forecast: New York

Metro Economic Forecast New York June 2021 - iPad

Although it suffered more than most at the start of the pandemic, New York has recovered 45% of its lost jobs from the nadir of Q2 2020. This corresponds to a net decline of 9.9% from the previous peak of Q1 2020 which ranks 45th of the largest 51 metros and worse than the 5.6% US net job decline. New York is expected to see job growth of 3.6% in 2021, 6.5% in 2022 and is expected to recover its lost jobs in Q4 2022. It is then expected to see average annual job growth of 0.6% from 2023 to 2025 which ranks 28th of 51 metros. The accommodation and food services sector is expected to contribute 33% of the growth followed by private education with 13% of the 2023–2025 growth.

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Research Briefing | Jul 22, 2021

US | Which state labor market recoveries are the strongest?

ipad frame-Which state labor market recoveries are the strongest

Midwestern and Southern state labor market recoveries are still outpacing the rest of the country. Labor demand has strengthened most strongly in these regions since our last assessment, and labor supply constraints are posing less of a drag on job growth. A robust summer recovery should support the ongoing recoveries of these regions, as well as the rest of the country.

labor market states

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Research Briefing | Jul 22, 2021

US | Which state labor market recoveries are the strongest?

ipad frame-Which state labor market recoveries are the strongest

Midwestern and Southern state labor market recoveries are still outpacing the rest of the country. Labor demand has strengthened most strongly in these regions since our last assessment, and labor supply constraints are posing less of a drag on job growth. A robust summer recovery should support the ongoing recoveries of these regions, as well as the rest of the country.

labor market states

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musicians

The study shows that, in addition to the 2.1m jobs that existed in the Creative Industries prior to the pandemic, a further 1.4m roles were supported by the sector through its supply chains.

Construction site at sunset
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Research Briefing | Jul 20, 2021

Global construction rebounding after COVID shock

Copy of Ipad Frame (36)

Our in-depth analysis of the construction sector highlights that activity in the sector is set to bounce back 3.9% in 2021. Given the flow of individual projects and the impact of policy stimulus we find that residential building and civil engineering will be the key growth sectors of the near-term; detailed projections are available within our newly-launched Global Construction Service. Following the initial shock, the construction sector has adapted well to the threat of the virus, and we expect future waves and variants (such as the delta variant) to become less disruptive.

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Research Briefing | Jul 20, 2021

Global construction rebounding after COVID shock

Copy of Ipad Frame (36)

Our in-depth analysis of the construction sector highlights that activity in the sector is set to bounce back 3.9% in 2021. Given the flow of individual projects and the impact of policy stimulus we find that residential building and civil engineering will be the key growth sectors of the near-term; detailed projections are available within our newly-launched Global Construction Service. Following the initial shock, the construction sector has adapted well to the threat of the virus, and we expect future waves and variants (such as the delta variant) to become less disruptive.

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