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Research Briefing | Jul 20, 2021

Sweden | Volatile start to Q2 does not change our view

Sweden | Volatile start to Q2 does not change our view

Sweden’s economy grew by 0.4% in May according to the monthly GDP
indicator. This followed strong growth in March and a weak April, with both
months affected by tax changes for registering new cars introduced on 1 April.

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Research Briefing | Jul 20, 2021

Sweden | Volatile start to Q2 does not change our view

Sweden | Volatile start to Q2 does not change our view

Sweden’s economy grew by 0.4% in May according to the monthly GDP
indicator. This followed strong growth in March and a weak April, with both
months affected by tax changes for registering new cars introduced on 1 April.

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Ungated Post|19 July 2021

Standing on the shoulders of AI giants: An economic dividend for Asian economies

James Lambert
James Lambert
Director of Economic Consulting, Asia
Standing on the shoulders of AI giants: An economic dividend for Asian economies

In the race to become the leader in Artificial Intelligence (AI), China and the United States are way ahead of the global competition. What does that mean for everyone else? Will these two giants of the global technology industry soak up the AI economic dividend all for themselves?

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Research Briefing | Jul 19, 2021

MENA | Saudi-UAE agreement, Covid-19 restrictions

Copy of Copy of Copy of Ipad Frame (55)

Amid deadlock within OPEC+, speculation is rising that Saudi Arabia and the UAE have reached a compromise over production quotas, after the UAE opposed an extension of the group’s cooperation deal beyond the current end date of April 2022.

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Research Briefing | Jul 19, 2021

MENA | Saudi-UAE agreement, Covid-19 restrictions

Copy of Copy of Copy of Ipad Frame (55)

Amid deadlock within OPEC+, speculation is rising that Saudi Arabia and the UAE have reached a compromise over production quotas, after the UAE opposed an extension of the group’s cooperation deal beyond the current end date of April 2022.

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This research program details procurement’s influence on the organization, the current state of supplier collaboration, and the impact of technology and process digitization in the function.

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Research Briefing | Jul 16, 2021

UK | Inflation surprise triggers a change of MPC tone

Ipad Frame - Inflation expectations are rising, not spiraling

Another upside inflation surprise points to the CPI measure peaking much higher than we previously thought. But June’s rise in prices did little to confirm fears that elevated inflation will become a persistent problem.

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Research Briefing | Jul 16, 2021

UK | Inflation surprise triggers a change of MPC tone

Ipad Frame - Inflation expectations are rising, not spiraling

Another upside inflation surprise points to the CPI measure peaking much higher than we previously thought. But June’s rise in prices did little to confirm fears that elevated inflation will become a persistent problem.

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Cargo

The Port of London Authority (PLA) commissioned Oxford Economics to produce forecasts of cargo handled in the Port of London to the year 2050 and identify opportunities and challenges for the PLA and
stakeholders.

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Research Briefing | Jul 16, 2021

Europe | Cities are recovering, but uncertainties remain

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European cities are on the road to recovery, as the improving health situation and gradual lifting of restrictions provide the foundation for a consumer-led revival. But the economic environment remains shrouded in uncertainty, with risks still skewed to the downside, albeit to a lesser extent than earlier in the pandemic.

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Research Briefing | Jul 16, 2021

Europe | Cities are recovering, but uncertainties remain

Copy of Ipad Frame (35)

European cities are on the road to recovery, as the improving health situation and gradual lifting of restrictions provide the foundation for a consumer-led revival. But the economic environment remains shrouded in uncertainty, with risks still skewed to the downside, albeit to a lesser extent than earlier in the pandemic.

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Research Briefing | Jul 15, 2021

US | Metro Economic Forecast: Chicago

Metro Economic Forecast Chicago June 2021 - iPad

Chicago has recovered 41% of its lost jobs from the nadir of the pandemic. This corresponds to a net decline of 7.5% from the previous peak of Q1 2020 which ranks it 41st of the largest 51 metros and below the US net decline of 5.6%. Chicago is expected to see job growth of 2.4% in 2021, 4.4% in 2022 and is expected to recover all of its lost jobs in Q1 2024. Looking medium term, Chicago is expected to see average annual job growth of 0.3% from 2022 to 2025 which ranks 42nd of 51 metros.

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Research Briefing | Jul 15, 2021

US | Metro Economic Forecast: Chicago

Metro Economic Forecast Chicago June 2021 - iPad

Chicago has recovered 41% of its lost jobs from the nadir of the pandemic. This corresponds to a net decline of 7.5% from the previous peak of Q1 2020 which ranks it 41st of the largest 51 metros and below the US net decline of 5.6%. Chicago is expected to see job growth of 2.4% in 2021, 4.4% in 2022 and is expected to recover all of its lost jobs in Q1 2024. Looking medium term, Chicago is expected to see average annual job growth of 0.3% from 2022 to 2025 which ranks 42nd of 51 metros.

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Research Briefing | Jul 15, 2021

Denmark | Delta variant is now the main downside risk

Denmark | Delta variant is now the main downside risk

We have raised our 2021 GDP growth forecast to 3.1% from 2.6% previously to reflect a revised softer economic decline in 2020 and a strong increase in
consumer activity. The relaxation of restrictions throughout Q2 should lead to an economic rebound of around 2% over the quarter and push GDP comfortably above its pre-pandemic level, with private investment and stronger services activity supporting growth in H2 2021.

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Research Briefing | Jul 15, 2021

Denmark | Delta variant is now the main downside risk

Denmark | Delta variant is now the main downside risk

We have raised our 2021 GDP growth forecast to 3.1% from 2.6% previously to reflect a revised softer economic decline in 2020 and a strong increase in
consumer activity. The relaxation of restrictions throughout Q2 should lead to an economic rebound of around 2% over the quarter and push GDP comfortably above its pre-pandemic level, with private investment and stronger services activity supporting growth in H2 2021.

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Research Briefing | Jul 15, 2021

US | Metro Economic Forecast: Nashville

Metro Economic Forecast Nashville June 2021 - iPad

Nashville has recovered 70% of its lost jobs from the nadir of the pandemic. Its net decline of 3.4% from the previous peak of Q1 2020 ranks 14th of the largest 51 metros and better than the US net decline of 5.6%. Nashville is expected to see job growth of 4.6% in 2021, 3.9% in 2022, and is expected to recover all of its lost jobs in Q3 2021. Looking beyond next year, Nashville is expected to see average annual job growth of 0.9% from 2023 to 2025 which also ranks 14th of 51 metros. Leisure and hospitality is expected to lead the growth.

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Research Briefing | Jul 15, 2021

US | Metro Economic Forecast: Nashville

Metro Economic Forecast Nashville June 2021 - iPad

Nashville has recovered 70% of its lost jobs from the nadir of the pandemic. Its net decline of 3.4% from the previous peak of Q1 2020 ranks 14th of the largest 51 metros and better than the US net decline of 5.6%. Nashville is expected to see job growth of 4.6% in 2021, 3.9% in 2022, and is expected to recover all of its lost jobs in Q3 2021. Looking beyond next year, Nashville is expected to see average annual job growth of 0.9% from 2023 to 2025 which also ranks 14th of 51 metros. Leisure and hospitality is expected to lead the growth.

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Research Briefing | Jul 15, 2021

US | Metro Economic Forecast: Boston

Metro Economic Forecast Boston June 2021 - iPad

Having suffered more than most during the pandemic, Boston has recovered 52% of its lost jobs from the nadir of the pandemic. This corresponds to a net decline of 7.6% from the previous peak of Q1 2020 which ranks 42nd of the largest 51 metros and below the US net decline of 5.6%. Boston is expected to see job growth of 4.2% in 2021, 5.1% in 2022 and is expected to recover all of its lost jobs in Q3 2022. It is expected to see average annual job growth of 0.6% from 2023 to 2025 which ranks 28th of 51 metros.

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Research Briefing | Jul 15, 2021

US | Metro Economic Forecast: Boston

Metro Economic Forecast Boston June 2021 - iPad

Having suffered more than most during the pandemic, Boston has recovered 52% of its lost jobs from the nadir of the pandemic. This corresponds to a net decline of 7.6% from the previous peak of Q1 2020 which ranks 42nd of the largest 51 metros and below the US net decline of 5.6%. Boston is expected to see job growth of 4.2% in 2021, 5.1% in 2022 and is expected to recover all of its lost jobs in Q3 2022. It is expected to see average annual job growth of 0.6% from 2023 to 2025 which ranks 28th of 51 metros.

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In this report for Lloyds Banking Group we review evidence on the potential impact of the transition to net zero on the UK economy.

Over the past twenty years parts of Asia Pacific have experienced some of the fastest economic growth globally. This trend is set to continue over the next fifteen years, with China and India continuing to lead Asia’s contribution to world GDP. In our latest APAC Cities and Regions Outlook, we explore some of the themes underpinning the outlook.

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Research Briefing | Jul 14, 2021

US | Metro Economic Forecast: Miami

Metro Economic Forecast Miami June 2021 - iPad

Miami has emerged from the pandemic with mixed results. It has recovered 48% of its lost jobs from the nadir of the pandemic. This is weaker than most of Florida. Its net decline of 6.4% from the previous peak of Q1 2020 ranks 33rd of the largest 51 metros and below the US net decline of 5.6%. Miami is expected to see job growth of 3.2% in 2021, 4.6% in 2022 and is expected to recover all of its lost jobs in Q2 2022. Looking medium term, Miami is expected to see average annual job growth of 0.8% from 2023 to 2025 which ranks 20th of 51 metros.

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Research Briefing | Jul 14, 2021

US | Metro Economic Forecast: Miami

Metro Economic Forecast Miami June 2021 - iPad

Miami has emerged from the pandemic with mixed results. It has recovered 48% of its lost jobs from the nadir of the pandemic. This is weaker than most of Florida. Its net decline of 6.4% from the previous peak of Q1 2020 ranks 33rd of the largest 51 metros and below the US net decline of 5.6%. Miami is expected to see job growth of 3.2% in 2021, 4.6% in 2022 and is expected to recover all of its lost jobs in Q2 2022. Looking medium term, Miami is expected to see average annual job growth of 0.8% from 2023 to 2025 which ranks 20th of 51 metros.

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Research Briefing | Jul 14, 2021

US | Why the Covid-induced productivity gains will stick

US Why the Covid-induced productivity gains will stick

The Covid crisis has accelerated the US economy’s automation in a way that we think will outlast the pandemic, leading to a sustained acceleration in productivity growth. Industries with traditionally weak productivity and considerable scope to accelerate digitalization stand to benefit the most, but others could also experience reduced labor demand from automation.

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Research Briefing | Jul 14, 2021

US | Why the Covid-induced productivity gains will stick

US Why the Covid-induced productivity gains will stick

The Covid crisis has accelerated the US economy’s automation in a way that we think will outlast the pandemic, leading to a sustained acceleration in productivity growth. Industries with traditionally weak productivity and considerable scope to accelerate digitalization stand to benefit the most, but others could also experience reduced labor demand from automation.

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Research Briefing | Jul 14, 2021

Canada | Excess savings seem big, but are smaller than you think

First page of Oxford Economics' Research Briefing titled Excess savings seem big, but are smaller than you think

Canadian Households accumulated C$184bn in gross excess savings between Q1 2020 and Q1 2021. That pool likely expanded as tighter health restrictions to contain the third coronavirus wave limited spending opportunities in Q2. But the true stockpile of liquid excess savings is much smaller.

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Research Briefing | Jul 14, 2021

Canada | Excess savings seem big, but are smaller than you think

First page of Oxford Economics' Research Briefing titled Excess savings seem big, but are smaller than you think

Canadian Households accumulated C$184bn in gross excess savings between Q1 2020 and Q1 2021. That pool likely expanded as tighter health restrictions to contain the third coronavirus wave limited spending opportunities in Q2. But the true stockpile of liquid excess savings is much smaller.

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How technology and data can help reduce the costs of compliance and improve the effectiveness of controls.

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Research Briefing | Jul 14, 2021

Eurozone | Why the labour market will recover faster than usual

Ipad Frame-Eurozone-Why-the-labour-market-will-recover-faster-than-usual

The eurozone labour market is heating up. We expect around 2 million jobs will be created from Q2 2021 until the end of the year, recovering almost two-thirds of the jobs lost since the coronavirus pandemic hit. Employment should return to pre-crisis levels by H2 2022, which is a markedly stronger performance than we had expected a few months ago.

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Research Briefing | Jul 14, 2021

Eurozone | Why the labour market will recover faster than usual

Ipad Frame-Eurozone-Why-the-labour-market-will-recover-faster-than-usual

The eurozone labour market is heating up. We expect around 2 million jobs will be created from Q2 2021 until the end of the year, recovering almost two-thirds of the jobs lost since the coronavirus pandemic hit. Employment should return to pre-crisis levels by H2 2022, which is a markedly stronger performance than we had expected a few months ago.

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Ungated Post|13 July 2021

Corporate Livewire Innovation and Excellence awards 2021

Corporate Livewire Innovation and Excellence awards 2021

corporate-livewire-awardsWe’re delighted that Oxford Economics has been announced as the Economic Forecasting Specialists of the Year.

The Corporate Livewire Innovation and Excellence awards 2021 programme celebrates the recent success and continued achievements of businesses and individuals across a wide range of sectors and industries whilst also addressing some of the most pertinent issues facing key sectors. This can range from a commitment to being environmentally friendly in the battle against climate change to enacting positive change via ethical investment and the realisation of corporate social responsibility.

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Research Briefing | Jul 13, 2021

Global | Coronavirus Watch: Delta risks mount

Concerns within markets about the impact of the Delta variant on the economy is in our view warranted. We have long warned that vaccinations would be unlikely to trigger a smooth transition to normalcy.

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Research Briefing | Jul 13, 2021

Global | Coronavirus Watch: Delta risks mount

Concerns within markets about the impact of the Delta variant on the economy is in our view warranted. We have long warned that vaccinations would be unlikely to trigger a smooth transition to normalcy.

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