US | Why the Covid-induced productivity gains will stick
The Covid crisis has accelerated the US economy’s automation in a way that we think will outlast the pandemic, leading to a sustained acceleration in productivity growth. Industries with traditionally weak productivity and considerable scope to accelerate digitalization stand to benefit the most, but others could also experience reduced labor demand from automation.
What you will learn:
- Most industries have responded to the pandemic by urgently adopting productivity-enhancing technologies, and we don’t expect firms to abandon these labor-saving tools.
- We see the shift continuing to leaner and more efficient operations in retail (self-checkouts), healthcare (telemedicine), warehousing (robots), and leisure and hospitality (digitalization).
- Acute labor supply constraints could entice companies to invest more in labor-saving technologies, especially in low-paid and labor-intensive industries. Our labor mismatch scorecard confirms that industries hit hard by the pandemic, such as leisure and hospitality and manufacturing, are seeing the most severe shortages.
Names will never hurt me –EM monetary credibility remains intact
Emerging market (EM) central banks' credibility to restrain inflation over the medium-term horizon remains intact despite the tests it's been subjected to in an age of supply shocks and massive income disappointments – and despite name-calling by some banks' political masters.Find Out More
Tight labour market and firm pay growth will worry the MPC
Contentious new Labour Force Survey data implies the UK jobs market was much tighter in H2 2023 than we previously thought, while our own sentiment data developed with Penta suggests conditions are little changed in early-2024.Find Out More