US | Why the Covid-induced productivity gains will stick
The Covid crisis has accelerated the US economy’s automation in a way that we think will outlast the pandemic, leading to a sustained acceleration in productivity growth. Industries with traditionally weak productivity and considerable scope to accelerate digitalization stand to benefit the most, but others could also experience reduced labor demand from automation.
What you will learn:
- Most industries have responded to the pandemic by urgently adopting productivity-enhancing technologies, and we don’t expect firms to abandon these labor-saving tools.
- We see the shift continuing to leaner and more efficient operations in retail (self-checkouts), healthcare (telemedicine), warehousing (robots), and leisure and hospitality (digitalization).
- Acute labor supply constraints could entice companies to invest more in labor-saving technologies, especially in low-paid and labor-intensive industries. Our labor mismatch scorecard confirms that industries hit hard by the pandemic, such as leisure and hospitality and manufacturing, are seeing the most severe shortages.
Big shifts are underway in Russia-China trade
Data for Q3 on the volume of China's imports of crude from Russia show a drop against the June level. Rather than an indication that China's demand has peaked, this may be a sign that China is preparing for the Russian oil price cap recently agreed by G7 by shifting some of its purchases to the grey market.Find Out More
Levelling up is unlikely under the Liz Truss government
The government's levelling up ambition has probably been made more, not less, difficult by the new "Plan for Growth". Policies of lower taxes, less regulation, and a smaller state are unlikely to have much beneficial impact on long-term growth at the national level, let alone in those regions with long track records of underperformance.Find Out More