Research Briefing | Jul 15, 2021

US | Metro Economic Forecast: Boston

Metro Economic Forecast Boston June 2021 - iPad

Having suffered more than most during the pandemic, Boston has recovered 52% of its lost jobs from the nadir of the pandemic. This corresponds to a net decline of 7.6% from the previous peak of Q1 2020 which ranks 42nd of the largest 51 metros and below the US net decline of 5.6%. Boston is expected to see job growth of 4.2% in 2021, 5.1% in 2022 and is expected to recover all of its lost jobs in Q3 2022. It is expected to see average annual job growth of 0.6% from 2023 to 2025 which ranks 28th of 51 metros.

What you will learn:

  • Home to one of the largest concentration of life science companies—which prosper from the flow of graduates from Boston’s prestigious universities and hospitals—Boston’s science R&D, technical, and management consulting services collectively grew 6.7% over the last year and is expected to grow 2.2% per year, on average from 2022-2025. 
  • GDP in Boston remains 0.3% below the peak Q4 2019. GDP is expected to grow 8.4% in 2021 and 4.7% in 2022. From 2023 to 2025, GDP is expected to grow at an annual rate of 1.8% led by professional and technical services which is expected to contribute 20% of the total growth, followed by the information sector with 16%. 
  • Employment in Boston’s health and education sectors declined 7.8% over the last year and is expected to grow at an annual rate of only 0.6% from 2023 to 2025. Although it employs more than 20% of the workforce, Boston’s education and health sector is expected to contribute only 8% of 2023-2025 GDP growth.

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