Research Briefing | Jul 14, 2021

US | Metro Economic Forecast: Miami

Metro Economic Forecast Miami June 2021 - iPad

Miami has emerged from the pandemic with mixed results. It has recovered 48% of its lost jobs from the nadir of the pandemic. This is weaker than most of Florida. Its net decline of 6.4% from the previous peak of Q1 2020 ranks 33rd of the largest 51 metros and below the US net decline of 5.6%. Miami is expected to see job growth of 3.2% in 2021, 4.6% in 2022 and is expected to recover all of its lost jobs in Q2 2022. Looking medium term, Miami is expected to see average annual job growth of 0.8% from 2023 to 2025 which ranks 20th of 51 metros.

What you will learn:

  • More than most of Florida, Miami relies heavily on its tourism sector which accounted for 35% of the net loss of 176,300 jobs from Q1 2020 to Q1 2021. Although Miami is less diverse than its Florida peers, it is seeing a burgeoning finance sector which grew 0.9% over the year.
  • Miami’s professional services sector grew 1.1% over the last year including growth of 5.6% in computer systems design and 5.2% in scientific R&D. Miami’s office sector, however, lost a net 18,100 jobs (-2.6%) from Q1 2020 to Q1 2021, including a decline of 9.7% in the information sector. 
  • GDP in Miami remains 0.8% below the peak Q4 2019 but is expected to grow 8.1% in 2021 and 4.9% in 2022. From 2023 to 2025, GDP is expected to grow at an annual rate of 1.8% led by real estate which is expected to contribute 20% of the growth.

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