US | Metro Economic Forecast: New York
Although it suffered more than most at the start of the pandemic, New York has recovered 45% of its lost jobs from the nadir of Q2 2020. This corresponds to a net decline of 9.9% from the previous peak of Q1 2020 which ranks 45th of the largest 51 metros and worse than the 5.6% US net job decline. New York is expected to see job growth of 3.6% in 2021, 6.5% in 2022 and is expected to recover its lost jobs in Q4 2022. It is then expected to see average annual job growth of 0.6% from 2023 to 2025 which ranks 28th of 51 metros. The accommodation and food services sector is expected to contribute 33% of the growth followed by private education with 13% of the 2023–2025 growth.
What you will learn:
- New York City’s restaurants are fully open and suffer from labor shortages, but consumers are enjoying dining out with no masks or restrictions. With a full re-opening, total job growth for New York City is forecasted to be 3.9% in 2021 and 8.0% in 2022 vs. growth of 3.4% and 5.2%, respectively, in the New York suburbs.
- New York’s large office sector will continue to struggle given the new popularity of working from home. Although most will return to the office, demands for space will remain flat for years. New York City office employment is expected to grow 3.0% in 2021 and 5.5% in 2022, and 3.25%, on average, in both years in the suburbs.
- GDP in New York remains 2.8% below the peak of Q4 2019. This ranks 45th of the largest 51 metros. GDP is expected to grow 7.6% in 2021 and 4.4% in 2022.
Firms must brace for higher ‘new normal’ construction material prices
New research by Oxford Economics suggests that construction materials prices have shifted permanently higher due to the shocks of the past couple of years. Project managers and investors should anticipate costs being at least 15-20% higher in 2024 and onwards than in 2021.Find Out More
New Activity Trackers suggest momentum is waning
After a choppy first quarter of GDP data, our novel Activity Trackers (which incorporate proprietary daily sentiment data from Penta) suggest that economic momentum in EM Asia is on a softer trend in Q2 (at least outside of China) supporting our view of easing underlying inflationary pressures and diminishing appetite for further rate hikes.Find Out More