Research Briefing | Jul 15, 2021

US | Metro Economic Forecast: Nashville

Metro Economic Forecast Nashville June 2021 - iPad

Nashville has recovered 70% of its lost jobs from the nadir of the pandemic. Its net decline of 3.4% from the previous peak of Q1 2020 ranks 14th of the largest 51 metros and better than the US net decline of 5.6%. Nashville is expected to see job growth of 4.6% in 2021, 3.9% in 2022, and is expected to recover all of its lost jobs in Q3 2021. Looking beyond next year, Nashville is expected to see average annual job growth of 0.9% from 2023 to 2025 which also ranks 14th of 51 metros. Leisure and hospitality is expected to lead the growth.

What you will learn:

  • Nashville had seen robust job growth of 4.0% per year, on average, in the five years prior to the pandemic. The attention that Nashville received after securing these two high-profile expansions should prompt further entrepreneurial activity in the city. However, the office real estate market will take a few years to return to the same occupancy it enjoyed prior to the pandemic.
  • Also known as “Music City,” Nashville’s “Cradle of country music” suffered significantly from the shutdown of venues. While domestic tourism should return in two years, Nashville’s large business tourism sector may not recover as rapidly as the success of remotely attending conferences will reduce travelers to the city.
  • GDP in Nashville remains 0.8% below the peak Q4 2019. This ranks 30th of the top 51 metros. GDP is expected to grow 9.8% in 2021, 5.4% in 2022, and 2.1% per year through 2025.

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