Research Briefing | Jul 14, 2021

Eurozone | Why the labour market will recover faster than usual

Ipad Frame-Eurozone-Why-the-labour-market-will-recover-faster-than-usual

The eurozone labour market is heating up. We expect around 2 million jobs will be created from Q2 2021 until the end of the year, recovering almost two-thirds of the jobs lost since the coronavirus pandemic hit. Employment should return to pre-crisis levels by H2 2022, which is a markedly stronger performance than we had expected a few months ago.

What you will learn:

  • The labour market has continually performed better than expected as the emergency measures introduced during the pandemic, including furlough schemes, prevented mass layoffs.
  • Households’ unemployment expectations are now close to record lows and firms’ hiring intentions are elevated across industries. So, we expect labour market strength to continue into next year.
  • We see some risks to the labour outlook. Prematurely withdrawing the emergency support could hurt economic sentiment and put firms’ liquidity under pressure.
Back to Resource Hub

Related Services

Post

South Africa: Elections 2024 | ‘Moonshot’ election scenario

This is the last of the four Research Briefings on scenarios for South Africa's general election on May 29. In this scenario, the centre-right opposition to the ANC, united in a coalition around the DA, secures enough votes to form a majority.

Find Out More

Post

Why the consumer recovery is delayed, not derailed

Latest data point to a delayed start to a consumer revival in the eurozone, but we see relatively low risk of it being derailed. Even with a slow start, it's unlikely to throw the rebound off course – plus there's a chance of make-up growth in H2. We expect private consumption to grow 1.2% in 2024 overall.

Find Out More