Research Briefing | Jul 23, 2021

US | Metro Economic Forecast: Phoenix

Metro Economic Forecast Phoenix June 2021 - iPad

Phoenix has recovered 66% of its lost jobs from the nadir of the pandemic. This corresponds to a net decline of 2.7% from the previous peak of Q1 2020. This net decline ranked 6th of the largest 51 metros and is far better than the US net decline of 5.6%. Phoenix is expected to see job growth of 3.4% in 2021, 2.9% in 2022, and is expected to recover all of its lost jobs in Q3 2021. Looking beyond next year, Phoenix is expected to see average annual job growth of 1.0% from 2023 to 2025 which ranks 9th of 51. Population growth will fuel this growth with concentrations in health care, construction, and state and local government.

What you will learn:

  • Seen as a low-cost alternative to the west coast metros, Phoenix’s tech sector has reaped significant growth including job gains in software publishing (+7.0% from Q1 2020 to Q1 2021), e-commerce (+5.6%), scientific R&D (+5.3%), and computer systems design (+2.4%).
  • Phoenix’s finance sector is also growing with Wells Fargo, Bank of America, and JP Morgan as three of the top 10 employers in the metro. The finance sector grew 2.9% over the last year.
  • GDP in Phoenix surpassed the peak 2019 level in Q1 and has grown 1.8% since the peak of Q4 2019. This ranks 7th of the top 51 metros. GDP is expected to grow 8.3% in 2021, 4.9% in 2022, and 2.0% annually from 2023 to 2025.

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