Research Briefing | Jul 23, 2021

US | Metro Economic Forecast: Los Angeles

Metro Economic Forecast Los Angeles June 2021 - iPad

Los Angeles has recovered 28% of its lost jobs from the nadir of the pandemic. This corresponds to a net decline of 10.4% from the previous peak of Q1 2020 which ranks in the bottom five of the largest 51 metros and worse than the US net decline of 5.6%. Los Angeles is expected to see job growth of 2.5% in 2021, and 7.1% in 2022 and is expected to recover all of its lost jobs in Q3 2022. Los Angeles is expected to see average annual job growth of 0.7% from 2023 to 2025 which ranks 23rd of 51 metros. With its large film sector, theme parks, and tourism sector, Los Angeles suffered more than most metros and is expected to recover at a moderate rate.

What you will learn:

  • LA’s film industry had shed 14% from 2016 to 2019 before falling another 36% during the pandemic. As other cities including Atlanta draw film production away from LA, the sector is not expected to recover its lost jobs in the next five years. 
  • Orange County, home to Disneyland and other theme parks, has recovered 11% of its lost leisure and hospitality jobs, which had fallen 41% in the Q2 2020. 
  • GDP in Los Angeles remains 1.4% below the peak Q4 2019. This decline ranks 37th of the top 51 metros. GDP is expected to grow 8.1% in 2021 and 5.0% in 2022. 

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