Research Briefing | Jul 26, 2021

US | Metro Economic Forecast: Dallas

Metro Economic Forecast Dallas June 2021 - iPad

Benefitting from a succession of corporate relocations prior to the pandemic, Dallas has recovered 68% of its lost jobs from the nadir of the pandemic, ahead of most of the US. Its net decline of 3.0% from the previous peak of Q1 2020 ranks 9th of the largest 51 metros and better than the US net decline of 5.6%. Dallas is expected to see job growth of 3.8% in 2021, 2.9% in 2022 and is expected to recover all of its lost jobs in Q4 2021. Its expected average annual job growth of 0.9% from 2023 to 2025 ranks 14th of 51 metros.

What you will learn:

  • Similar to Austin, Dallas has reaped healthy growth in its tech sector, particularly in computer systems design, which added 9,000 jobs (+9.8%) from Q1 2020 to Q1 2021. 
  • Like many metros, Dallas’s warehouse and storage sector expanded significantly adding 15,800 jobs, for growth of 30%. This industry has tripled in size since 2015. Air transportation, in contrast, shed 8,500 jobs (-21.3%) from Q1 2020 to Q1 2021. 
  • GDP surpassed the peak 2019 level in 2021 Q1 and has grown 0.9% since the peak of Q4 2019. GDP is expected to grow 8.5% in 2021, 4.9% in 2022, and 2.2% on average from 2023-2025. 

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