Research Briefing | Aug 5, 2021

US | Metro Economic Forecast: Atlanta

Metro Economic Forecast Atlanta June 2021 - iPad

Atlanta has recovered 56% of its lost jobs from the nadir of the pandemic. Its net decline of 4.7% from the previous peak of Q1 2020 ranks 19th best of the top 51 metros and better than the US net decline of 5.6%. Atlanta is expected to see job growth of 3.3% in 2021, 3.6% in 2022, and is expected to recover all of its lost jobs in Q1 2022. From 2023 to 2025, Atlanta is expected to see average annual job growth of 0.7% led by accommodation and food services with 21% of the total growth, followed by health care and social services with 15%, and state and local government—including state government jobs as well as those at Georgia State and Georgia Tech—with 14% of the total growth.

What you will learn:

  • Atlanta has long boasted of its diverse array of headquarter firms including Coca Cola, CNN, and Delta. However, in addition to steep tourism-related losses, the manufacturing sector declined 4.2% from Q1 2020 to Q1 2021, information (media) declined 5.6%, and air transportation fell 28.2%, along with a 4.8% fall in state government.
  • GDP in Atlanta surpassed the peak 2019 level in Q1 and has grown 1.2% since the peak of Q4 2019. This ranks 9th best of the top 51 metros.
  • Atlanta’s three large universities draw many young people to the region. From Q1 2020 to Q1 2021, net migration accounted for approximately half of the 54,400 (+0.9%) population growth.

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