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Webinar
EM policy pivots ahead of AEs as investment takes a hit

with Gabriel Sterne and Lucila Bonilla | Online | August 24, 2023

Real activity growth in emerging markets (EMs) ex-China has been more resilient than we expected, despite very tight monetary policy. So far this year, we’ve increased our GDP forecasts in 15 large EMs. However, our Q2 nowcasts are indicating slowing momentum, particularly though investment weakness. We pencil a greater drag from past policy tightening on activity in 2024 that will contribute to easing core inflation momentum. This will allow most EMs to cut ahead of the Fed, with risks tilted to a faster normalisation.

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Webinar
Stagflation et hausse des taux, où sont les bonnes nouvelles?

with Pierre Delage and Daniela Ordonez | Online | June 20, 2023

Alors que la France et la zone euro semblent enlisées dans la stagflation, les Etats-Unis montrent des signes étonnants de résilience face à la Fed, au moins pour le moment. La Chine déconfinée, elle, se montre en apparence contra-cyclique avec de la croissance et une tendance déflationniste. Dans ce contexte, qu’attendre au S2 2023 en termes d’inflation, de politique monétaire et de croissance?

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Webinar
Euro area outlook: shifting from energy risks to financial risks

with Angel Talavera and Tomas Dvorak | Online | May 10, 2023

The euro area defied expectations of a winter downturn, and economic activity has proven remarkably resilient. But the economic outlook is now facing increasing risks from the impact of the sharp tightening in credit conditions. We’ll explore the outlook for the eurozone and have an in-depth look at the ways in which higher interest rates will impact the European economy.

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Webinar
Key Themes for Cities in 2023: Asia Pacific, Europe, North America

with Aedan McCotter and Richard Holt | Online | January 12, 2023

As the world economy faces economic slowdown, with many advanced nations experiencing recession, one key theme for cities in 2023 is bound to be the existence of safe havens: cities whose growth will be less damaged than most, or which may prove to be more resilient than their national economies. Possible factors include their industrial structures, the resilience of their consumer sectors and of their housing markets, and likely trends in their visitor economies. In this webinar we will explore these issues, and identify from a city perspective what to look out for as 2023 unfolds.

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Webinar
Africa Watchlist 2023

with Jee-A van der Linde | Online | December 6, 2022

Africa’s economic resilience will be tested in 2023 as the west and east battle it out for the fastest-growing region. What are the factors that might precipitate recessions in the continent’s largest economies, and where could the next debt restructuring take place? A flare-up in tensions may lead to conflict between the DRC and Rwanda, jeopardising economic integration within the East African Community. Zimbabwe heads to the polls next year – will we see meaningful change this time? In this webinar we will take a closer look at these key themes for Africa in 2023.

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