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Webinar
Latin America Regional Outlook – Growth turns a corner as monetary policy eases

with Tim Hunter and Debora Reyna Garcia | Online | March 13, 2024

In this webinar, we will review the regional outlook for Latin America. Central banks have largely triumphed in taming high inflation, but at a cost to output. Prospects should improve in the second half of this year, but there are important growth stories to uncover across countries. Key to this will be consumer spending, which has shown varying degrees of resilience to the high interest rates of the past few years. We will also review our latest research, with a focus on the outlook for monetary policy. This will be key for markets, with Mexico yet to start easing whereas Chile nears the end of its cycle.

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Webinar
Why we think LatAm interest rates will fall faster than markets expect

with Felipe Camargo and Joan Domene | Online | February 16, 2024

Our research on key long run drivers of interest rates – based on models and discretion – suggests that markets will face larger-than-expected drops in bond yields in the economies of the region. Global and domestic considerations lead us to forecast a 100bps drop in Brazilian 10-year yields and a 150bps in those of Mexico, both which exceed current consensus expectations.

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Webinar
LatAm growth slows as Argentina eyes a silver bullet

with Joan Domene and Felipe Camargo | Online | September 8, 2023

Growth dynamics across the region’s largest economies are diverging. Mexico’s delayed recovery will support its overperformance, while most countries are already feeling the impact of policy tightening. Resilient consumption in some countries and new shocks to commodity prices could compromise the speed of monetary policy normalization, which has already begun. Argentina’s surprise presidential front-runner opened the door to a possible dollarization that revived an old ghost. We will discuss the potential path to its implementation and the degree of success it could achieve.

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Webinar
Nearshoring – China’s loss is not (yet) Mexico’s gain

with Gabriel Sterne and Joan Domene | Online | July 20, 2023

Media frenzy over nearshoring in Mexico has failed to provide an accurate picture. Mexico is the best-positioned emerging market to gain from global trade dislocation but that does not mean it has seen the greatest benefits up to date. Asian economies and Canada have grown their share of US imports faster than Mexico since the US-China trade decoupling started five years ago. In this webinar, we dissect the visible effects of nearshoring in Mexico’s exports and manufacturing sectors and the implications for the short-term economic outlook.

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Webinar
Latin America: is the worst behind us?

with Marcos Casarin and Joan Domene | Online | June 13, 2023

Strong post-pandemic recovery and high commodity prices provided a surprising momentum to Latin America that extended well into 2023. However, economic cycles are decoupling. Economies like Chile and Argentina are already feeling the hangover from prior overheating, while the region’s two largest economies, Brazil and Mexico, could still feel the pain of a global recession later this year or in 2024. In this webinar, we dissect growth divergence in the region and what it means for the outlook for inflation and monetary policy.

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Webinar
Latin America’s exposure to an asset crash scenario

with Marcos Casarin and Joan Domene | Online | March 30, 2023

The failure of regional banks in the US did not change our baseline forecast for asset prices, central bank policy or the real economy in Latin America. But it was a reminder that the Fed could cause accidents along the way in its fight against inflation and Latin America could become a casualty in the process. Marcos Casarin and Joan Domene will provide an update on the outlook and risks for the region with a focus on its two largest economies, Brazil and Mexico.

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