Why we think LatAm interest rates will fall faster than markets expect

Our research on key long run drivers of interest rates – based on models and discretion – suggests that markets will face larger-than-expected drops in bond yields in the economies of the region. Global and domestic considerations lead us to forecast a 100bps drop in Brazilian 10-year yields and a 150bps in those of Mexico, both which exceed current consensus expectations.

Felipe Camargo

Senior Economist, Latin America

+52 55 7100 1823

Felipe Camargo

Senior Economist, Latin America

Mexico City, Mexico

Felipe is a Senior Economist at Oxford Economics, based in Mexico City. Born in Brazil, he is currently responsible for the macroeconomic forecast for Argentina and Chile, as well as bespoke research for Emerging Market economies, with a focus on Latin America. Prior to joining Oxford Economics in 2019, Felipe worked as a macro strategist for Brazil’s third biggest pension fund, Funcef. He currently holds an MSc in economics from Fundacao Getulio Vargas (FGV), in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.

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