Why we think LatAm interest rates will fall faster than markets expect

Our research on key long run drivers of interest rates – based on models and discretion – suggests that markets will face larger-than-expected drops in bond yields in the economies of the region. Global and domestic considerations lead us to forecast a 100bps drop in Brazilian 10-year yields and a 150bps in those of Mexico, both which exceed current consensus expectations.

Felipe Camargo

Lead Global Economist

+44 (0) 203 910 8047

Felipe Camargo

Lead Global Economist

London, United Kingdom

Felipe is a Lead Economist at Oxford Economics, based in London, UK. He is resposible for the macroeconomic coverage and forecast of Brazil, as well as bespoke quantitative research on global macro topics. Felipe has extensive experience covering emerging market economies and developed skills as a macro strategist since his prior years at a Brazilian pension fund. He currently holds an MSc in economics from Fundacao Getulio Vargas (FGV), in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.

Joan Domene

Chief Latin America Economist

+52 55 7100 1824

Joan Domene

Chief Latin America Economist

Mexico City, Mexico

Joan Domene is the Chief Economist for Latin America and is responsible for developing Oxford Economics’ view on the region. Joan is responsible for producing macroeconomic forecasts for Mexico. He manages a team of economists who produce regional and country-specific research on over 30 countries. Joan’s work also involves presenting the outlook to clients and liaising with the media. Joan joined Oxford Economics in 2019 as Senior Economist after 5 years at a Mexican private bank.

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