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The mitigating circumstances around EM public debt threats

with Evghenia Sleptsova and Gabriel Sterne | Online | March 5, 2024

For larger emerging markets (EMs) the supply shocks era has led to increased public debt-to-GDP ratios. But we find solace in our assessment of recent budgets and in our dissection of debt composition. Various frontier markets, however, remain bogged down in crisis resolution processes the length of which are proving very costly to debtors and creditors alike; but even in the case of frontiers we see encouraging signs that some may regain market access as global monetary conditions ease.

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Why the crisis in crisis resolution could go on for decades

with Gabriel Sterne and Maya Senussi | Online | October 18, 2023

Stricken sovereigns are suffering as China and the Western-dominated IMF Board engage in a titanic wrestling match over crisis-resolution architecture. It’s a massive problem that could be a destructive force for decades. In considering the arguments there’s one thing that almost all commentary has missed: China has a strong case to feel wronged.

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