The mitigating circumstances around EM public debt threats

Date: 5 March 2024

For larger emerging markets (EMs) the supply shocks era has led to increased public debt-to-GDP ratios. But we find solace in our assessment of recent budgets and in our dissection of debt composition. Various frontier markets, however, remain bogged down in crisis resolution processes the length of which are proving very costly to debtors and creditors alike; but even in the case of frontiers we see encouraging signs that some may regain market access as global monetary conditions ease.

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Gabriel Sterne

Head of Global Emerging Markets

Private: Gabriel Sterne

Head of Global Emerging Markets

London, United Kingdom

Gabriel delivers macro-economic products tailored for corporates and financial markets, as head of a team that integrates EM macro and strategy views.  In recent years he has published wide-ranging research including on stagflation risks, monetary policy credibility, global savings, demographics, Covid scarring, risks and resilience in emerging markets, and sovereign crisis resolution. He joined from investment banking boutique Exotix in May 2014, following 20 years of public sector experience, including at the Bank of England and International Monetary Fund.

Lucila Bonilla

Global EM Senior Economist

+44 (0) 203 910 8144

Lucila Bonilla

Global EM Senior Economist

London, United Kingdom

Lucila holds a BA in Economics and a master’s degree in Economics of Public Policy from the Barcelona School of Economics. Her research focuses on emerging markets macro and strategy, along with country-specific coverage of Argentina and Uruguay. She joined Oxford Economics after working at one of LatAm’s top economic think tanks and several international organisations (ECLAC, UNDP, OECD).

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