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We run a worldwide programme of insightful conferences, roundtables, webinars and podcasts presented by our economic experts.

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Webinar
Eurozone: On a slow path towards recovery

with Rory Fennessy | Online | March 18, 2024

While the worst may be over for the eurozone economy, the prospect of a quick revival in growth is limited. Activity should pick up stronger in the second half of 2024 as falling inflation supports real incomes and consumer spending, but more restrictive fiscal policy as government priorities shift from providing support to deficit reduction will drag on growth. We expect the ECB to commence with rate cuts in Q2, although growth won’t receive a boost until 2025.

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Webinar
Latin America Regional Outlook – Growth turns a corner as monetary policy eases

with Tim Hunter and Debora Reyna Garcia | Online | March 13, 2024

In this webinar, we will review the regional outlook for Latin America. Central banks have largely triumphed in taming high inflation, but at a cost to output. Prospects should improve in the second half of this year, but there are important growth stories to uncover across countries. Key to this will be consumer spending, which has shown varying degrees of resilience to the high interest rates of the past few years. We will also review our latest research, with a focus on the outlook for monetary policy. This will be key for markets, with Mexico yet to start easing whereas Chile nears the end of its cycle.

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Webinar
Global Consumer Outlook: Finding growth in 2024 and beyond

with Alex Mackle and Marcos Casarin | Online | March 6, 2024

Global consumer spending will continue to grow this year, despite the general economic slowdown. But as demand weakens and consumers’ tolerance for higher prices wanes, retailers will have to rely more on volumes expansion to match last year’s sales performance. In this webinar, we dig into the economic outlook to find pockets of growth in consumer spending markets across countries, cities and different categories of spending.

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Webinar
US macro and metro outlook: slow growth ahead

with Barbara Byrne Denham and Bernard Yaros | Online | November 13, 2023

The US economy is heading into Q4 with plenty of momentum. However, this strength will wane next year, as robust consumer spending has been fueled by an unsustainable decline in savings. In addition, the tightening of financial conditions from higher bond yields and more restrictive fiscal policy will constrain growth in 2024. We see the economy slowing down to well below its potential growth rate next year but averting an outright recession. Tune in to this webinar to learn more about the economy’s prospects, along with a focus on metro-level job growth and demographic shifts.

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Webinar
US outlook: See no recession, hear no recession?

with Ryan Sweet and Oren Klachkin | Online | July 11, 2023

The economy stands on solid ground mid-way through 2023 as consumer spending remains resilient and businesses continue to hire. However, we see storm clouds on the horizon and anticipate a mild recession as the Fed remains reluctant to take its foot off the brake while credit conditions tighten further. Tune in to our quarterly outlook webinar to find out how bad the damage will be.

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Webinar
Consumer Outlook – Risks & Opportunities 2023/2024

with Florent Guillarme and Graeme Harrison | Online | June 27, 2023

In 2020, Covid triggered a shock to global consumer spending like we’ve only seen in war times. However, it also created conditions for a rebound through a saving cushion for households, even more for the wealthiest. So despite unprecedented inflation from 2022, particularly rising prices for non-discretionary items like energy and food, followed by unprecedented monetary tightening & raising rates, consumer spending in nominal terms (much less so in real or volume terms) has proved surprisingly resilient globally thanks to savings, strong GDP and nominal earnings, but also resilient stock markets, labour markets and wealth underpinned by the travel recovery too, but for how long and what are the Consumer turbulences to come ahead? The webinar will explore how Consumers will react from now, to the end of monetary tightening, with GDP and inflation weakening in Europe, the US and China and the with the effect of recent developments starting to bite more. It will cover the macro context (GDP, income, savings, earnings, inflation, labour market, interest rates and credit, confidence and government policy), including macro factors more relevant to the luxury sector (e.g. wealth and asset prices) and how different socio-economic groups are affected. It will also go into a deeper dive into the consumer sector (aggregate and a breakdown of consumer spend and retail sales in volume and value terms and into different goods and services products), trends in online vs in-store spending, the recovery in tourism spending and trends in income and price elasticity.

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Webinar
Africa: Consumer spending in a new pricing landscape

with Jee-A van der Linde | Online | May 30, 2023

The cost-of-living crisis has not let up and consumers across the board have seen their spending power diminished, some more than others. African households are arguably the worst off due to relatively low discretionary spending levels. In this webinar, we explore how African economies are faring by looking at consumer spending patterns and how policymakers are navigating sticky price inflation.

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Webinar
Tight supply supports energy, demand concerns weigh on metals

with Kiran Ahmed, Toby Whittington and Stephen Hare | Online | June 17, 2022

With the Russia-Ukraine conflict showing little sign of ending, concerns about supply continue to dominate energy markets – the EU is ratcheting up pressure on Russia, while Russia has in turn cut off gas supply to several countries. The focus in metals markets has shifted towards concerns about demand amid the slowdown in China. In this webinar we explore the impact of these developments on commodity prices and discuss key risks to our forecasts.

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Webinar
Latin America’s winners and losers from the war in Ukraine

with Marcos Casarin and Felipe Camargo | Online | May 20, 2022

As a relevant commodity exporter, Latin America stands to benefit from the generalized increase in prices for raw materials. But the gains will not be uniform across all countries or across all sector of the economy, as the renewed rise in inflation will squeeze consumers' incomes and savings.

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Webinar
CEE Key Themes 2022 – In for an eventful year

with Tomas Dvorak and Mateusz Urban | Online | February 2, 2022

After emerging as an outperformer in early 2021, the Central and Eastern European region is set to face an eventful year in 2022. This year should see brisk growth as the region’s economies recover from the pandemic. We expect consumer spending to boost growth in the later part of the year, while industry now appears to have turned the corner and is set for a strong 2022. But the recovery will be uneven, with a variety of downside risks threatening to make it bumpy. In the webinar, we will discuss our outlook for the CEE region, paying particularly close attention to the downside risks: persistently high inflation driven by structural factors, political uncertainty, input shortages and slower supply chain recovery. We will also cover the outlook for monetary and fiscal policies in the CEE, focusing on the hawkish turn of the region’s central banks and the disbursement of the NGEU funds.

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