Recent Release | 07 Jun 2023
The future of trade and B2B payments
Macro Consulting Team
Oxford Economics
Cross-border trade and business payments are shifting in real time. To help identify opportunities amid volatility, this new report by Convera and Oxford Economics offers insights into how global trade will evolve in coming years.
Global trade has remained remarkably resilient in recent years despite significant disruptions from the pandemic, war, and a shifting geopolitical landscape. Going forward, trade will remain an engine of global economic growth, but there will be a reconfiguration of the global trade landscape to adapt to emerging geopolitical, economic, and environmental realities.
B2B relationships are, and will continue to be, a critical component of global trade growth, supported by enablers such as currency exchange. Government policies will be key in this area. However, any products and technologies that help to simplify and reduce cross-border frictions will also play a pivotal role in driving healthy global trade.
The experts behind the research
Lloyd and Padmasai, members of the Macro Consulting team, a group of world leaders in quantitative economic analysis, working with clients around the globe and across sectors to build models, forecast markets and evaluate interventions using state-of-the art techniques.
Lloyd Barton
Associate Director, Macro Consultancy
Padmasai Varanasi
Senior Economist, Macro Consulting
Tags:
Recent trade-related reports
China and AI underpin stronger global trade outlook
Global trade is set for a stronger-than-expected rebound, supported by lower US tariffs, continued AI-driven investment, and China’s renewed export push. Our latest forecasts show upgrades to both nominal and volume trade growth in 2025–26, even as legal uncertainty surrounding US tariff mechanisms and evolving geopolitical dynamics pose risks to the outlook.
Find Out More
US Shipping freight rates on track to stay low in 2026
Our supply chain stress index moderated in September as import volumes continue to decline following front loading activity earlier this year. High frequency data shows that this trend has kept up in Q4, meaning port congestion is unlikely to become a concern.
Find Out More
US Tariff Monitor – Going bananas over food prices
The US macroeconomic implications are minor, and the resulting reduction in inflation next year is no more than just a handful of basis points.
Find Out More
Affordability is top of mind as US government shutdown ends
The end of the government shutdown did not alter the broader economic trajectory, but it did create a sharp swing in the sequential pace of GDP growth within the November baseline outlook. As Washington refocuses on affordability and agencies restart delayed data releases, the coming weeks will offer clearer insight into how policy debates, price pressures, and election-year dynamics may shape the near-term environment.
Find Out More
