Saudi Arabia’s GDP fell by 0.4% y/y in Q2, largely due to the continuous decline in oil production. This marks the fourth consecutive quarter of contraction. Despite the weak oil sector, we expect GDP to expand by 1.5% this year, due to increased non-oil activity.
Turkey has received its third credit rating upgrade this year, as Moody’s revised its rating to “B1” from “B3”, following Fitch’s and S&P’s upgrades earlier this year. Moody’s upgrade for Turkey marks its first in over a decade. The two-notch upgrade was driven by the implementation of appropriate macroeconomic stabilization policies. Yesterday, Turkey’s central bank has left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 50%. We expect the central bank to maintain its policy rates at the current level until 2025 Q1.
Sunday’s presidential election presents limited upside scenarios for the Venezuelan economy. Our baseline is for President Nicolás Maduro to remain in power and current sanctions to be maintained.
Our tool suggests India is a strong contender. Holding India back is its low productivity per worker and poor education levels, but it still is the top-scoring emerging market.
Kenya has been facing a tumultuous month from an economic and political perspective, but our baseline scenario assumes that the East African nation is not headed towards a fiscal cliff.
Our blog will allow you to keep abreast of all the latest regional developments and trends as we share with you a selection of our latest economic analysis and forecasts. To provide you with the most insightful and incisive reports we combine our global expertise in forecasting and analysis with the local knowledge of our team of economists.
Our blog will allow you to keep abreast of all the latest regional developments and trends as we share with you a selection of our latest economic analysis and forecasts. To provide you with the most insightful and incisive reports we combine our global expertise in forecasting and analysis with the local knowledge of our team of economists.
Our blog will allow you to keep abreast of all the latest regional developments and trends as we share with you a selection of our latest economic analysis and forecasts. To provide you with the most insightful and incisive reports we combine our global expertise in forecasting and analysis with the local knowledge of our team of economists.
How much of the picture for 2025 is dependent on the US labour market? In this week’s video, join Oliver Rakau, Associate Director, as he discusses whether there will be a divergence between centrals banks going into 2025.
Related Posts The rise of Southern India’s business service hubs Over the next five years, India is set to be one of the fastest-growing major economies across Asia Pacific, lead by the performance of its IT and business services. The Southern states of Karnataka and Telangana are at the forefront of this success as they … Read more
Related Reports Modelling physical climate risk: Assessing UK flood risk and economic impacts In this blog, we examine the economic consequences of a 1-in-200-year flood event in London and across the UK. Find Out More → Cities Key Themes 2026: Growing divergence Trade restrictions, increasing competition in higher value-added industries, and elevated AI investment will … Read more
Our blog will allow you to keep abreast of all the latest regional developments and trends as we share with you a selection of our latest economic analysis and forecasts. To provide you with the most insightful and incisive reports we combine our global expertise in forecasting and analysis with the local knowledge of our team of economists.
Join Andrew Goodwin, Chief UK Economist, as he outlines the potential economic impact on fiscal policy of the manifestos published recently by the Conservative and Labour parties.
The 2024 US Presidential Election is less than seven months away. In this week’s Beyond the Headlines, Bernard Yaros, Lead Economist, outlines two scenarios for the US economy if former President Donald Trump returns to the White House and Republicans sweep Congress.
Our blog will allow you to keep abreast of all the latest regional developments and trends as we share with you a selection of our latest economic analysis and forecasts. To provide you with the most insightful and incisive reports we combine our global expertise in forecasting and analysis with the local knowledge of our team of economists.
Indian consumers’ spending power is far behind that of their Chinese counterparts, and we are sceptical about the pace of catch-up. Even if the Indian economy achieves the ambitious growth targets set, there are few signs that record levels of income inequality will reverse soon.
This report highlights the vulnerability of food production cost in ASEAN given the impending physical and transition risks of climate change. It also highlights the critical policy response at domestic and international level to support the transition.
We find emerging, but not overwhelming, macro proof to support the recent geopolitical narrative of excess Chinese goods production that unfairly undercuts global manufacturing competitors on price. Without compelling evidence in the data, there is likely no impetus for authorities to adopt meaningful course-corrective measures to rein in any perceived excess capacity problems zeroed in by Western trading partners anytime soon.
This briefing sets out the second of our four scenarios for South Africa’s general election: the ANC wins only 40% of the vote and makes a coalition deal with the radical leftists of the EFF.
