Following China’s accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2001 and its broader integration into the global economy, the US significantly increased economic ties with China. US trade ties with China peaked in 2017, with the share of US goods exports going to China reaching 8.6%, and the share of goods imports reaching 21.6%.
However, over the last two years, tension has increased across all dimensions of the US-China bilateral relationship, trade and investment relations have also deteriorated markedly. Tariffs and countertariffs have been imposed. Today, despite the phase one agreement, tariffs remain at an unprecedented level. Lines between the commercial and national security domains have become increasingly blurred.
This report sheds light on the economic significance of the US-China commercial relationship and evaluates what a future escalation or de-escalation of trade and investment ties would mean for the US economy.
The experts behind the research
Our macro consulting team are world leaders in quantitative economic analysis, working with clients around the globe and across sectors to build models, forecast markets and evaluate interventions using state-of-the art techniques. Lead consultants on this project were:
Head of Macro Consulting, Americas
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