Research Briefing
The potential damage to large swathes of industry in Mexico and Canada from blanket US tariffs could be devastating and...
US Elections 2024
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Research Briefing
President Trump initiated a global trade war by announcing across-the-board tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China. This development came sooner...
Our short-term outlook for the global economy has a seen a small upwards revision due to the expected loosening of...
Research Briefing
Start-of-the-year residual seasonality occurs because supplier and labor contracts are usually renegotiated in January, leading to an upward bias in...
The German and Italian automotive industries stand out as the most exposed to Trump's tariff threat. Our estimates suggest that...
Research Briefing
President Donald Trump signed a slew of executive orders related to immigration, trade, and the federal government workplace, but these...
We expect the chemicals sector to benefit in the short run from Trump’s re-election but face challenges over the longer...
Research Briefing
Donald Trump's tariff threats for day one of his new presidency would have a heavy impact on the Mexican economy...
Electronics and high-tech manufacturing are highly exposed to the rising risk of a major hit to their profits from protectionist...
Research Briefing
The creation of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), along with the incoming Treasury secretary's goal of halving the deficit...
Fundamental forces including demographics, Ai, geopolitics and climate change play a key role in building resilience into long-term CRE investment...
The construction sector has experienced wild ups and downs in recent years, a trend that looks set to continue under...
Research Briefing
We expect Trump's tariffs will reduce global trade values by more than 7% by 2030 compared to our pre-election forecasts.
Research Briefing
The three major policy proposals planned for the second Trump administration—expansionary fiscal policy, lower immigration, and tariffs—will have mixed implications...
Research Briefing
The risks around the forecast for federal government employment are skewed to the downside because of the limited scope for...
Research Briefing
January poses a triple threat to US imports
Our latest global industry forecasts reflect the impact of a second Trump presidency on industrial sectors. The US industrial forecast...
Research Briefing
Blanket 25% tariffs on Canada threatened by US President-elect Donald Trump earlier this week would push Canada into a recession...
Research Briefing
The incoming Trump administration’s trade policies will have significant impacts on China’s sectoral outlook. There will be a small near-term...
Research Briefing
Since we adopted greater protectionism in our November US forecast, the risks to our baseline have become more balanced. But...
