What we learned, and didn’t, from Trump’s executive orders

President Donald Trump signed a slew of executive orders related to immigration, trade, and the federal government workplace, but these actions were widely anticipated and warrant only minimal changes to the baseline.

What you will learn:

• As expected, Trump is cracking down on humanitarian migration. We lowered our forecast of net migration after the election, but an additional reduction will depend on whether Republicans can pass increased border funding that would allow for more deportations than expected.
• An executive order on trade was supportive of our baseline, which assumes only targeted tariffs that don’t start to take effect until the beginning of 2026 due to procedural delays.
• Nevertheless, Trump’s remarks on Monday still leave the door open for even more aggressive tariffs. He proposed a 25% tariff on Canada and Mexico starting in February.

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