Research Briefing
The narrative surrounding policymaking and its near-term economic impact has shifted dramatically from the January to February baseline forecast.
US election
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Related Services US Forecasting Service Access to short- and long-term analysis, scenarios and forecasts for the US economy. Find Out...
Our short-term outlook for the global economy has a seen a small upwards revision due to the expected loosening of...
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Start-of-the-year residual seasonality occurs because supplier and labor contracts are usually renegotiated in January, leading to an upward bias in...
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President Donald Trump signed a slew of executive orders related to immigration, trade, and the federal government workplace, but these...
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Donald Trump's tariff threats for day one of his new presidency would have a heavy impact on the Mexican economy...
We expect the impact of Trump policies will be a net positive for Japan. The boost from higher import demand...
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The debt limit was reinstated at $36tn on January 2, but it's not a hard deadline for Congress to act...
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We've adopted our "limited Trump scenario" as our baseline forecast for Japan. We now assume that the US will impose...
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The creation of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), along with the incoming Treasury secretary's goal of halving the deficit...
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The three major policy proposals planned for the second Trump administration—expansionary fiscal policy, lower immigration, and tariffs—will have mixed implications...
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January poses a triple threat to US imports
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Blanket 25% tariffs on Canada threatened by US President-elect Donald Trump earlier this week would push Canada into a recession...
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Since we adopted greater protectionism in our November US forecast, the risks to our baseline have become more balanced. But...
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u live in interesting times in US The first release of the November baseline incorporated the election outcome, but in...
At Oxford Economics, we have been closely monitoring the potential impact of President Trump's tax cuts on the US economy....
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We have revised down our global economic forecasts slightly from our snap post-election assessment. The broad picture is little changed,...
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Fears that President-elect Donald Trump would attempt to fire Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell or meddle with the Federal Open...
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US tariffs under a Trump presidency and a Republican-led Congress are a major concern for China. However, we expect additional...
Research Briefing
We received many questions, including during our recent webinar, about the changes to the forecast following the election along with...
