Research Briefing | Nov 22, 2024

May you live in interesting times in US

The first release of the November baseline incorporated the election outcome, but in interesting and uncertain times, our baseline assumptions require more frequent updates to stay current with the evolving balance of risks.

What you will learn:

  • We adopted more protectionist measures in the second release of the baseline. We assume 30% blanket tariffs on China with additional Asian countries in the crosshairs. In our view, risks to our tariff assumptions are now in better balance than before.
  • To the upside, tariffs may end up lower than expected if the president-elect remains attuned to the stock market, and the leading candidate to head the Treasury Department pushes back against Donald Trump’s protectionist instincts.
  • To the downside, tariff hikes could easily be more severe and swifter than anticipated as history is rife with examples of presidents erecting trade barriers early in their terms. Also, the politics of tariffs seem favorable.
  • Record container activity at the Port of Long Beach speaks to a strong consumer and jitters ahead of a potential port strike in mid-January. We will monitor this metric to gauge whether firms are actively preempting potential changes to trade policy under the new administration.
  • Upside risks to inflation from medical care seem less glaring over the medium term as labor constraints are becoming less binding in the sector.
Back to Resource Hub

Related Posts

Post

Buckle up: Trump era brings economic uncertainty to cybersecurity

Senior Editor Teri Robinson spoke with Chief US Economist Ryan Sweet about the what the second Trump administration will mean for cybersecurity, including the shifting responsibilities of defenders the safety of critical infrastructure, and the rise of AI.

Find Out More

Post

The US debt limit’s back, but with a whimper for now

The debt limit was reinstated at $36tn on January 2, but it's not a hard deadline for Congress to act upon immediately. Therefore, the reinstatement of the debt limit does not have implications for our near-term forecast.

Find Out More

Post

Recession Monitor – US recession odds continue to fall

Our probability of recession models are approaching their zero bound and are at their lowest levels in more than two years, as leading indicators signal an encouraging outlook.

Find Out More