Research Briefing
In our March baseline we revised down substantially our long-term forecast for housing starts to better align it with our...
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Research Briefing
We expect another year of industrial metal price weakness in 2024 and are generally below consensus. Metal demand will remain...
Research Briefing
Weak demand, profit margin compression, easing pipeline pressures, and abating supply bottlenecks mean we see core goods inflation strongly coming down...
Research Briefing
We expect widespread declines in inflation and interest rates in 2024 across advanced economies. A key differentiator, however, is that...
In the context of an accelerated expansion of the tech industry, and the implementation of policies like the CHIPS and...
Research Briefing
As the largest emitter of CO₂ emissions globally, the electricity sector will play a central role in the energy transition....
Research Briefing
Once pent-up demand from post-lockdown fades, we think that Asian economies will settle at lower GDP growth and higher inflation than our pre-pandemic forecasts. This means nominal interest rates are also likely to stay high in 2023-2024.
Research Briefing
The Czech National Bank again kept the policy rate unchanged at 7% for a sixth consecutive time at the meeting today. This was...
Research Briefing
The UK badly needs a strategy to improve potential economic growth and for the government to make it a central...
Research Briefing
Housing affordability deteriorated in 2022 by the most since the housing crisis and rebalancing is needed to foment healthier market...
Research Briefing
Supply chain stress fell at the beginning of the year and further easing is likely due to weaker domestic and...
Research Briefing
Major shocks over the past two years have prompted US manufacturing firms to rethink their supply chains, with greater inventory...
Research Briefing
The easing in supply chain stress is an encouraging sign for the US inflation outlook, but conditions continue to drag...
Research Briefing
German industry has been successful in reducing its consumption of gas relative to previous years, particularly in the second half...
Research Briefing
The Federal Reserve knows that their mission to tame inflation isn’t complete, and odds are rising that the central bank...
Research Briefing
Tightening US financial conditions over the past year will likely trim 0.2ppts from Q4 2022 GDP growth.
Research Briefing
Over 2023, we expect global food, energy, and goods inflation to fall sharply. That said, the degree to which services...
Research Briefing
Following the loss of Russian pipeline gas, European countries have increasingly focused on LNG shipments as a replacement, giving Europe...
Research Briefing
The G7 and the European Union (EU) hope to keep Russian oil exports on the market and prevent global oil...
Research Briefing
The MPC and OBR both judge that UK potential GDP has fallen outright since Q4 2019 and will register only...
