Research Briefing
We still anticipate a shallow economic downturn in Q2 and Q3 before a tepid recovery emerges later this year. Accordingly,...
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The 2024 federal budget projects a steady diet of wider deficits over the next five years, adding new spending only...
Research Briefing
We now project that the Bank of Japan will start to raise its policy rate next spring assuming another robust...
Surprisingly, the rate hiking cycle in the US has not been accompanied by a spike in financial distress. This week...
Research Briefing
Surprisingly, the rate hiking cycle in the US has not been accompanied by a spike in financial distress. This partly...
Research Briefing
We were a little surprised that Fed officials had not pushed back harder against market expectations for aggressive rate cuts...
Research Briefing
While we believe interest rate hikes are mostly over, interest-sensitive sectors are being weighed down by the cumulative impact of...
Research Briefing
After a difficult 2023, we think five key themes will shape the outlook for commercial real estate next year.
Research Briefing
Our measure of financial conditions has become less restrictive in the US and started to loosen in the eurozone and...
Research Briefing
More market participants appear to have become confident that the wage-driven inflation is real, which will encourage the Bank of...
In the past week, our research has focused on the recent behavior of, and prospects for, interest rate-sensitive elements of...
Research Briefing
The relative resilience of G7 output in the face of aggressive rate hikes is partly due to the surprising strength...
Research Briefing
Canada's economy has now likely fallen into the recession that we have long been expecting. Key imbalances – highly indebted...
Research Briefing
We estimate that the ECB's job of taming elevated inflation will feature an unfavourable trade-off due to the uneven sectoral...
Research Briefing
After a choppy first quarter of GDP data, our novel Activity Trackers (which incorporate proprietary daily sentiment data from Penta)...
Research Briefing
The failure of two US banks caught financial markets by surprise but we believe the macroeconomic implications are minor and...
Research Briefing
The Bank of Japan enhanced its funds-supplying operations in January, after widening the tolerance band for 10-year JGB yields in...
Research Briefing
The latest Beige Book revealed an economy that on balance was treading water heading into 2023.
Research Briefing
Financial conditions in Canada have tightened significantly this year and we estimate this will shave 0.7ppts off GDP growth by...
Research Briefing
The Federal Reserve knows that their mission to tame inflation isn’t complete, and odds are rising that the central bank...
