Research Briefing
The outlook for Latin America changed dramatically after Russia's invasion of Ukraine last February.
Price Inflation
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Research Briefing
The strength of the US labor market, as demonstrated by the increase in job openings in September, will frustrate the...
Looking into 2023, developers and investors have to assess conflicting pressures to construction costs, rising interest rates, and falling capital...
Research Briefing
The precipitous decline of the Yen to record fresh lows (and briefly above 150 last month) coupled with a dramatic...
Research Briefing
Central banks and many other forecasters may be underestimating the risk of persistently high inflation. While our view is that...
Research Briefing
Anything but a 75bps hike of the ECB's key policy rates after next week's council meeting would be a big...
Research Briefing
Supply chain strains eased in September after increasing slightly in August. Transportation pressures subsided the most of all our tracker's...
As spiralling energy prices threaten to cause huge pain for consumers and businesses, governments across Europe are rolling out initiatives...
Research Briefing
According to the proposal of the German government's expert commission around half of the recently agreed €200bn fiscal package or...
Research Briefing
The National Bank of Poland (NBP) kept its policy rate unchanged at 6.75% yesterday, undershooting consensus and our expectation of...
Research Briefing
Although easing restrictions in China have helped to reduce global supply chain pressures, we expect rising costs and weakening demand...
Research Briefing
The evidence of the past year shows that inflation has been far from transitory. But we still believe supply factors...
Research Briefing
The energy crisis took a dramatic turn this week after reports of several leaks in the gas pipelines Nordstream 1...
Research Briefing
Our baseline economic outlook now assumes a mild US recession in the first half of 2023. Despite moderate improvement in...
Research Briefing
Odds of a downturn in Canada have just crossed a tipping point and we now expect a moderate recession starting...
Research Briefing
The UK government's energy price guarantee will mean a much lower peak for inflation, reducing the damage to household incomes....
Research Briefing
The acceleration in nominal wage growth rates in Central and Eastern European (CEE) economies over the past couple of quarters...
Research Briefing
We have long been expecting a dovish pivot from the ECB at the turn of the year as supply-driven core...
Research Briefing
The minutes from the July ECB meeting, when the bank ended the period of the negative interest rates in the...
Research Briefing
Recession risks are mounting globally, including in the eurozone. Growing recession fears have resulted in large drops in oil prices...
