Research Briefing
Explore July's labour market update: unemployment dips to 4.2%, showing stability despite economic challenges. Learn how these trends may impact...
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Research Briefing
The net immigration into the US has slowed more abruptly than anticipated in the early days of Trump's second presidency....
Rising wage costs have been increasingly squeezing the already low profitability of small firms in Japan, thereby raising concerns about...
Research Briefing
We received many questions, including during our recent webinar, about the changes to the forecast following the election along with...
Research Briefing
Amid the fast-progressing electric vehicle (EV) shift, maintaining high competitiveness in auto-related sectors and ensuring a smooth labour transition across...
Research Briefing
Our probability of recession models showed marked improvement in September, reversing much of the recent rise. Against this backdrop, our...
Research Briefing
We are significantly raising our forecasts for consumer spending growth over the next few years. We expect real consumption growth...
Research Briefing
Our nowcast of the US PCE deflators imply inflation is not falling as smoothly as we had anticipated. But it...
Research Briefing
Hurricane Helene will affect the labor market, consumer spending, housing, corporate profits, and industrial production, but the implications for Q4...
Research Briefing
The economy remains in transition and is settling into a more sustainable pace of growth, with next year being decent...
Consumer spending growth will remain resilient this year. Supported by rising real incomes, consumer spending growth is forecast to average...
Research Briefing
President Joe Biden's decision to drop out of the election doesn’t warrant any immediate changes to our election scenarios nor...
Research Briefing
Each month, we forecast the dozens of price categories that underlie the consumer price index, and our forecast is for...
Research Briefing
A Democratic sweep of the 2024 presidential and congressional elections would mean major changes to social benefits programs and tax...
Research Briefing
The recent increase in the unemployment rate is less threatening than it appears as it is limited in scope across...
Research Briefing
Recession fears are overdone and premature. The economic data has generally come in weaker than expected, but this is not...
Research Briefing
Close observers of the economy this week had to digest a bevy of indicators that provided mixed signals on the...
Research Briefing
Many states have far more job openings than available labor as per the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS)...
Research Briefing
The lower-than-expected increase in nonfarm payroll employment, along with declining job openings and quits, suggest that wage pressures are unlikely...
Research Briefing
The relatively tepid 1.6% annualized gain in Q1 GDP does not present cause for concern, nor does it mean the...
