Slowing net US migration hasn’t tightened labor markets yet

Explore how recent immigration crackdowns are affecting labor markets in industries most exposed to unauthorized workers, and what the latest data suggest about future labor market pressures.

Despite a sharp slowdown in net unauthorized migration, job openings and unemployment rates have yet to show a clear divergence between high- and low-exposure industries, raising important questions about when labor market effects may begin to emerge.

Unauthorized immigrants account for nearly 6% of the US workforce but represent more than double the national average in industries such as private households, landscaping and building services, and crop production. While California, Florida, New Jersey, New York, and Texas have the highest concentrations of undocumented workers, reliance on this workforce extends beyond border and coastal states, with many interior counties also showing elevated exposure.

Although unemployment in high-exposure counties has fallen relative to other areas, it is too early to determine whether this reflects the beginning of a broader trend or normal data volatility. Job openings have shown little divergence from less-exposed industries, while demand for temporary agricultural labor, reflected in H-2A certifications, has continued to increase.

Download the report for the full analysis and explore which industries and regions are most exposed, how labor market indicators are evolving, and what these trends could mean for the broader US economy.