Research Briefing
In the second release of the November baseline, we updated our tariff assumptions, but the impact on GDP, inflation, and...
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Research Briefing
We still anticipate a shallow economic downturn in Q2 and Q3 before a tepid recovery emerges later this year. Accordingly,...
Research Briefing
Battery raw materials prices bottomed out last quarter and we think a sustained recovery is looming. Midstream EV battery manufacturing...
Research Briefing
Inflation has fallen sharply in advanced economies over the past year, and we expect central banks to start cutting interest...
Research Briefing
Our supply-chain stress tracker declined again in June and stood halfway below its year-ago level, signaling a massive improvement in...
After suffering an extended period of steep declines, we believe that the downturn in semiconductor sales may finally be nearing...
Research Briefing
Supply chain stress has eased significantly despite resilient consumer and business spending, a reassuring development for the inflation outlook.
Research Briefing
Supply chain stress eased in April, which will put downward pressure on goods prices and allow the Fed to pause...
Research Briefing
Supply chain stress eased further in March and we expect conditions to continue improving through the rest of 2023.
Research Briefing
Shortages have supported a wave of inventory rebuilding in the US this past year. But with inventories now above normal...
Research Briefing
The incoming data likely warrant some adjustments to the baseline forecast, particularly for the path of the target range for...
Research Briefing
Supply chain stress fell at the beginning of the year and further easing is likely due to weaker domestic and...
Research Briefing
We now incorporate a faster recovery from the post-Covid exit wave and raise our 2023 full-year GDP growth forecast to...
Research Briefing
Supply-chain stress continues to recede, boding well for inflation and lending some upside risk to our near-term growth outlook.
Research Briefing
Major shocks over the past two years have prompted US manufacturing firms to rethink their supply chains, with greater inventory...
