Research Briefing | Jan 20, 2023

Receding US supply-chain pressures offer new year cheer

Supplychain stress continues to recede, boding well for inflation and lending some upside risk to our near-term growth outlookOdds are it will take time for the positive impact to work through the economy, but the effects of the pandemic and other recent shocks on supply-chains are clearly fading.

What you will learn:

  • Our proprietary supply-chain stress indicator registered its second consecutive y/y decline in December, ending the year 13% below where it stood at the end of 2021.
  • For a second straight month, all components of our tracker improved. Transportation led the way, with trade pressures dropping, while the activity and labor components improved more modestly.
  • Price pressures also fell, though declines lagged in the final months of 2022, with the price component falling 7% q/q in Q4 compared to 20% for other components. Inventory conditions improved as demand cooled and some businesses worked down their stockpiles. Inventories warrant attention as they could add volatility to GDP growth this year.
Back to Resource Hub

Related Services

Current Expected Credit Loss (CECL)


US Forecasting Service

Access to short- and long-term analysis, scenarios and forecasts for the US economy.

Find Out More



A comprehensive source of forecasts for world trade.

Find Out More


Global Macro Service

Monitor macro events and their potential impact.

Find Out More